Monday, April 6, 2009

Bizarro Symmetry

The largest victory margin in a championship game since (UNC rival) Duke beat (Michigan State rival) Michigan by 20 in 1992.

Man, I hate the ACC.

UPDATE: Since that '92 Duke-Michigan game, the ACC is 5-0 against the Big Ten in title games.

1992 - Duke over Michigan
1993 - UNC over Michigan
2002 - Maryland over Indiana
2005 - UNC over Illinois
2009 - UNC over Michigan State

Indiana's win over UNC in 1981 is the only other title game featuring the two conferences.

Get a brain!

Allow me to take advantage of the under-4 timeout to comment on the stupidity of Bill Self winning two Coach of the Year awards, first the AP and then CBS/Chevrolet's. (As if anything that an American car company puts its name on isn't discredited enough.) I'll say it again:
It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.
Self isn't even the Big 12 Coach of the Year, much less the national COY. Roy Williams benefitted from this myopia in 2006, the idiocy that rewards a coach not for actual coaching, but for how much talent he has after he wins a national championship. It's nuts and makes me wonder if the people who decide these things can focus on more than 3 or 4 schools for a two-year stretch at a time.

So Why are They Here?

Apologies for lack of coverage leading to the Final Four, but I was in turmoil over Calipari. My spirits have been conditionally lifted by the hiring of his ace recruiter and assistant Josh Pastner, who will inevitably leave for Arizona one day, but hey it's the best option now. 

Alright, so I'm just going to give a quick take on what I think got the title contenders to tonight's game, and I'll hazard a prediction, which may be the thing I'm worst at. 

Michigan State

Why are they here? Travis Walton and Kalin Lucas, no question. I have to give a standing ovation to the two defensive gems in a row that MSU turned in against Louisville and UConn. Louisville's 4-deep backcourt rotation could not provide their usual injection of energy and points against Walton and Lucas, along with MSU's own deep guard rotation. Walton's powers of defensive disruption also got to Terrence Williams.  Of course, shutting down a team like Louisville takes all 5 on the floor, and MSU worked together beautifully to deny Louisville passing and driving lanes. The defensive effort got Lousiville, not the most mentally solid team, stuck in a rut they couldn't escape. 

Walton and Lucas performed even better against UConn. A.J. Price, the best player of weekend 1, was 5-20 and could not provide any heroics or game-changing shots to get UConn out of the doldrums.  MSU did a great job of closing off driving lanes, as more than once a Husky guard penetrated only to have to retreat to the perimeter. All that, and that Durrell Summers dunk was SICK. 


North Carolina

It's hard to say anything original about Carolina at this point, especially since Dana O'Neil captured it so well here.  Simply put, Carolina has so many levels of offensive backup, it's extremely difficult to shut them all down.  It took superhuman efforts by Tyrese Rice of BC, Greivis Vasquez of Maryland, and Toney Douglas of FSU and a masterpiece by Wake Forest to beat them this year. 

All that said, it's become glaringly obvious that Ty Lawson dwarfs Tyler Hansbrough in importance to Carolina's chances. Yes, Hansbrough "hustles" and "works hard" but it would mean zilch without Lawson running the show and initiating those devastating Tar Heel runs where he, Ellington, and Green bury you.  Lawson couldn't save UNC against Kansas (shudder) last year, but he might have been able to stem that tide with his new shooting touch. 

Prediction

Where does that leave us? I think it's safe to say that many fans (myself included) want MSU to turn Hockeytown into Hoops Heaven tonight. But I can't get over the fact that as good as A.J. Price was in the first 2 rounds, Lawson has outshone him since. It's helped that Ellington has finally turned it on so he can follow his PG's lead when Lawson decides it's time to inflict death by a thousand daggers.  It will be a hell of a matchup to see Lawson go against a backcourt that is very capable of taking him off his game. I just don't see Carolina falling flat on so many fronts that they lose this game, unfortunately. MSU will slow them down, but Carolina will inevitably make a serious run. Carolina's defense has improved to the point that they will be able to beat back an MSU rally, if barely. Hansbrough, Davis, and Zeller can keep up with MSU x-factor Suton on the perimeter and Carolina's overall size will be able to frustrate him inside. 

I won't rule out the possibility that MSU will turn in a third straight masterful performance, and I definitely think they can beat Carolina, but I think Lawson's poise and skill carry the night. 

UNC 78 MSU 71

It's been a fun ride. Enjoy.