Memo to K-State: CURTIS MF'ING KELLY

As forlorn as Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen were after K-State just coughed up their chance at a Final Four, they really have only their decisionmaking to blame. It was unbelievably aggravating to watch the dynamic K-State guards ignore big man Curtis Kelly for the entire second half. Particularly damning was one possession where Kelly realized Gordon Hayward, who couldn't handle him in the post, was on him down low. Kelly screamed for the left side side to be cleared out, which, for once, it was; sealed off Hayward on the low left block effectively; and begged for the ball from Clemente on the left wing. Clemente promptly....passed all the way to the right corner for a bad shot. What?!?

The second half was a maddening progression for any K-State supporter to watch, with missed layup followed by bad shot followed by defensive lapse. I have nothing but admiration for the game the Wildcats played on Thursday night, there are few college basketball games in history that will ever top it. And today you could understand Pullen and Clemente trying to put a struggling team on their backs. But their failure to keep feeding their only consistent offense in the second half doomed their comeback attempt, and their succession of clanged jumpers and turnovers from over-dribbling should sting for a long time.

All that said, an absolute standing ovation to Butler for poise and execution down the stretch. Coach Brad Stevens has made this team into a high-basketball-IQ force in the clutch, with tremendous baskets by Gordon Hayward and Ronald Nored down the stretch cinching a homecoming for the ages for the Bulldogs. As I said to Shankar last week, when you're having trouble picking a tourney game, go with basketball IQ, and I dare say the number of clutch situations in this tourney has proved me right. Of course, I picked K-State to the Final Four over...Syracuse. Oh well.

I'm officially rooting for Butler to win it all. As a Memphis fan, the prospect of a Final Four with Tennessee, Kentucky, and Duke looms as a possibility too horrifying to contemplate....As for now...GO MOUNTAINEERS!

Five more minutes

If for some unknown reason you are reading this blog, but do not have your television on, TURN IT ON. In a tournament full of incredible games, the knockdown, dragout war between Kansas State and Xavier lands firmly at the top of the heap.

And it's not even over.

Oh, and Gus Johnson is calling it.

The Butler Did It!

An incredible 11-0 run in the last 4 minutes of the game, which bookended a 12-1 to start the game, just put Butler 1 win away from a dream Final Four in their hometown of Indianapolis. Oh, and it sent another #1 seed packing.

I haven't been high on Syracuse and, in fact, thought that without Arinze Onuaku, they wouldn't get past the first weekend of the Tournament. But I didn't expect them to lose tonight. Neither of the 'Cuse's two critical weaknesses -- turnovers and defensive rebounding -- plays into Butler's strengths. But apparently the Orange didn't need a lot of help coughing the ball up. The 18-7 turnover disparity was the first key to Butler's win. It meant that the Bulldogs took 4 more shots from the field and 7 more from the free throw line. Gotta shoot to score.

The second key stat, equally odd, was Butler's 16-for-28 shooting inside the arc. The Bulldogs typically rely on threes, and per usual, they shot a boatload tonight. But they only hit 25% from downtown. They more than made up for it by poking their way into the seams of Syracuse's zone. Missing Onuaku didn't help.

Take heart, Syracuse fans. You have plenty of company in the Big East comfort room, where your rivals from DC, Philly, and Pittsburgh have been licking their wounds. And don't say we didn't warn you:

The March has said all season long that this is a down year across the board in college hoops, and that the tournament would be chaotic, um, madness as a result. With Kansas down, there are some happy folks in Lexington, Syracuse, and Durham, but they best beware. The Madness has barely begun.

About Last Week...

...Leftover pictures and video from Providence, before the Sweet 16 kicks off tonight.

St. Mary's Gael embarrasses himself once again in a "dance off" vs. the Villanova Wildcat. Luckily he didn't jinx the team. Note crowd's loud boos. I think I was the one shouting "You suck!"

St. Mary's big man Omar Samhan blocks Villanova in the final minute to seal the Gaels' win over the Wildcats and a spot in the Sweet 16.

Sadly this Ohio alum's chicken suit did not provide enough lift to the Bobcats.


Their faces say it all. Ohio just didn't have it against Tennessee.

Things We Don't Want to Forget

A random list of moments and plays we want to make survive the vagaries of memory.

- On the drive up to Providence late late Wednesday night, being stopped dead in our tracks by a bunch of (long and filthy string of expletives) who decided to close off a highway so they could drag race. F you New York   assholes.

- Karon Abraham of Robert Morris making an incredible dipsy doo reverse layup high high high off the glass...lingering on the rim....and in! And.The. Crowd. Went. WILD. Abraham later hit a ridiculous contested 3 from the left wing as part of RMU's last gasp.

- Dallas Green of RMU justifiably throwing a fit to a ref's face after getting called for a terrible foul when he'd achieved a held ball against Villanova in OT. The only favor the refs did RMU all game was not throwing Green out. They knew what they'd just done. Green ended the game in tears.

- RMU getting a decent look to tie and take 'Nova to 2OT...just barely missing, leaving most of the crowd deflated, but admiring. And Karon Abraham stuck in the left corner, and not touching the ball. And the entire crowd, including the entire Villanova section, giving the dejected 15th seeded Colonials a standing ovation as they left the court.

- Omar Samhan getting basket after basket after basket vs Richmond while encountering nary a double-team, and Mickey McConnell stretching the lead with deep 3s when Samhan sat with foul trouble.

- The awful awful awfulness of the St. Mary's Gael mascot. Seriously. Awful.

- The strippers, in their "work clothes," handing out fliers 10 feet from local news crews outside the Dunkin Donuts center midday Thursday. Literally the only time I've reacted, sincerely, to a situation by thinking "Oh no what about the children?!?!"

- Waiting to get back in for the Thursday night games, overhearing 2 guys behind us loudly discussing, roughly, 5 adulterous relationships they had been/are currently involved in.

- Possibly the most annoying fan of the entire weekend....a 30-something lady cheering for the Hoyas (seriously bad karma) who, at various points shouted "Get him!" and "Kill them!" It's not effing football you shrill dolt. We fled to the 75% empty (more bad karma) Georgetown student section partly to avoid cursing her out for sheer ignorance.

- Ohio putting on a shooting performance against Georgetown I wouldn't have believed if I hasn't seen it.

- The great Ohio and RMU cheering sections.

- SDSU's Kawhi Leonard getting called for an absolutely atrocious phantom phantom foul diving for a ball at midcourt late against Tennessee. From what we saw, he could only have fouled the floor or the ball. The sequence played a huge role in swinging the game to the Vols. And DJ Gay almost bringing the Aztecs back with big 3s.

-  Omar Samhan dominating Villanova inside just as much as he had against Richmond.

- Mickey McConnell's crossover step-back 3, straight in 'Nova's eye. Crowd explodes.

- Matthew Dellavedova going Globetrotter in a real game, falling to the floor while keeping his dribble going, getting up, stepping back, and nailing a 3 to make it 64-61 St. Mary's. Crowd explodes.

- Mickey McConnell banking in a 25 foot shot with 1:15 left to put the Gaels up 3....from the  same spot Karon Abraham had hit a late 3 to keep RMU close against the same 'Nova team. Crowd explodes.

- Samhan fittingly sealing the Gael victory with a block. Crowd loses its collective shit.

- Seeing and being part of 10,000 people losing their shit at the same moment...and seeing the reactions of the college kids who made it happen.

- The middle-aged, female, courtside Ohio fan who spent a considerable stretch of the 2nd half screaming "Shit!" during every Vol possession...regardless of what was happening...while sitting two seats away from two kids (not hers).

Just a tremendous slate of games for us to see in person, including the SDSU-UT nailbiter from courtside. Some good pictures and video will be up soon. Goodbye, Providence!

A Thin 3-point Line

The line between hero and goat is a thin one. Ali Farokhmanesh ended up on the right side of it today with an incredibly "gutsy" 3 pointer with about 35 seconds left to drop a bomb on brackets everywhere and knock the prohibitive favorite out of the tournament. (The line between gutsy and stupid is equally thin.) With a 1-point lead, 37 seconds left in the game, and just 5 seconds into the shot clock, Farokhmanesh had beaten a Kansas press and found himself in the frontcourt with a Kansas defender near the basket and a teammate on the other side of the floor. Instead of holding the ball to run down the clock or make Kansas foul, Farokhmanesh inexplicably pulled up for a 3. With no Panthers under the basket to grab a rebound, a miss almost certainly given Kansas the ball with about 35 seconds and down a point.

Nothing but net.

It was a fitting capstone to another great performance by the Panthers guard. And it meant that all the game's stupid 3-point attempts belonged to Kansas.

The March only caught the 2nd half of this game, during which it was completely mystified by Kansas' insistence on trying to get back in the game by shooting jumpers. By the time theyh realized they have 3 potential picks down low, it was almost too little, too late. They clawed back into it by dumping it inside, but Farokhmanesh twice turned them back, first with a huge 3 for a 59-53 lead, then with the risky dagger with 35 seconds left.

The March has said all season long that this is a down year across the board in college hoops, and that the tournament would be chaotic, um, madness as a result. With Kansas down, there are some happy folks in Lexington, Syracuse, and Durham, but they best beware. The Madness has barely begun.

(Post by Shankar)

Bleh. UT 83 OHIO 68

Ohio made a run in the second half, cutting it to 9 a few times, but it just wasn't enough. Orange to the Sweet 16...ick. Major props to the Ohio fan base, who showed up in force and were part of a valiant effort.

HALFTIME UPDATE: TENNESSEE 38 OHIO 27

Uh, sorry Georgetown. Ohio is just barely within striking distance of UT, but only by virtue of timely 3s by Tony Freeman. Little else worked against the Vols' size and athleticism. UT is executing and shooting reasonably well, but more importantly are playing harassing, active defense that plays up their large size advantage. Believe me, we've moved to near courtside, the disparity is glaring. Unless Ohio pulls out some of that Thursday magic, the only highlight left for us will be chatting with Verne and Bill. Ohio, got onions?

SATURDAY HOURS! ST. MARY'S 75 VILLANOVA 68

Dear Mr. McConnell,

We are in receipt of your unusual request that we open our doors on a Saturday. As posted in clear language on our website, our business hours are 8 am to 5:30 pm, Monday to Friday.

That said, we are sympathetic to you plea. We note that you and your business partners have embarked on an entrepreneurial venture we initially deemed risky and unlikely to succeed. But through sound strategic planning, wise decision making, a clear-eyed recognition of your strengths and weaknesses, and your own managerial leadership, you have managed to outmaneuver the competition and are poised to drive them out of this regional market. We have been duly impressed and believe that with a bit more assistance, your success may go national. We recognize that this is a pivotal moment.

Additionally, we understand that you are requesting that we open for just a few seconds, and that you intend to run in and out -- literally. Accordingly, we are pleased to let you know that we will be taking the extraordinary step of opening our bank for a brief moment this afternoon so that you may withdraw the funds necessary to further your venture.

We wish you all the best.

Sincerely,

The Bank

P.S. Please convey our warmest regards to your business partner Omar. Dude's a goddamn BEAST on the block, yo.

(Post written by Shankar)

HALFTIME UPDATE: ST. MARY'S 38 VILLANOVA 31

Pictured: St. Mary's warming up for the 2nd half.

Oh Mickey you so fine! The March has been impressed with the play of Gael guard Mickey McConnell so far in the tournament. His handle, poise, and shooting have been key to St. Mary's success through a game and a half. He also provided a delicious playground moment straight out of Rucker Park in the first half with a wicked crossover dribble and step-back 3. To paraphrase  Rudy Fernandez, he definitely put those points on the defender's face.

As for Villanova, they came out flat, but still significantly better than Thursday. It's more that St. Mary's has executed well overall and are hitting the shots they need to, while smartly avoiding fouls. The second half should be a good contest. Scottie Reynolds has some pep in his step, but has largely stayed within the offense to get his teammates going. Omar Samhan has been magnificent for the Gaels, with coach Randy Bennett doing some serious offense-defense shuffling to limit him to 2 fouls. He's scored 15 in the half while importantly controlling the defensive glass.

The scoreboard also informs us that neither team has committed a turnover. Kudos!

The building is packed, with 'Nova fans making it feel like Wachovia north, but there is a solid and loud St. Mary's contingent. And their unfortunate mascot. Stay tuned!

OMAR COMIN'

The March is in line at a food court due to slight time mismanagement, but we will be racing straight to 10 St. Mary's vs. 2 Villanova.  Omar Samhan absolutely wrecked the Richmond Spiders, doing too much damage before getting into foul trouble. We'll see if the Wildcats, unlike the Spiders, opt to double team and see if St. Mary's can sink 3s. Onward!

Close Encounters

The March is taking in tonight's slate of games at Dave & Buster's in downtown Providence, where we have been joined by . . . the Tennessee basketball team. Bobby Maze, the Vols' resident drama queen, sat directly to my right, until he decided that he could not stand my foul stench and decided to sit next to Srinivas. (More likely, he wanted a better view of the Duke game to cheer on his buddy Nolan Smith.) The evidence:


Word on the street is that the Villanova team will be in later this evening.

UPDATE: Srinivas adds (courtesy of his Facebook page):

Srinivas Ayyagari

I'm sitting next to Vol guard Bobby Maze at the bar. He has a *stack* of D&B arcade tickets. HELLO? NCAA VIOLATION! Also fighting urge to heckle J.P. Prince to his face.

39 minutes ago

Srinivas Ayyagari

Bobby Maze just bounced from the bar to elsewhere in D&B's, but not before engaging in a literally *10 second long* handshake/combo/ritual with one of his boys. Not exaggerating at all. Multiple people watching openmouthed.

36 minutes ago

Admissions Day

Dear Messrs. Thomas, Farokhmanesh, Pondexter, and Smith:

Thank you for your applications. We have enjoyed reviewing them and are pleased to inform you that you have been accepted for admission to our storied institution.

We are also delighted to inform you that this is one of our largest single-day admission classes ever.

Welcome.

Sincerely,

The March History Books

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?! Mega Post of Sights and Sounds of Providence, Day 1

The March is exhausted. We will cover our day and thoughts on the games we saw and throughout the country in the morning. But seriously, are you kidding me??! Just an obscenely great day of tournament basketball. For now we'll leave you with the Sights and Sounds (with minor descriptions) of Thursday in Providence. Pictures from the Robert Morris THRILLER (the last pic from that game is of them walking off the court to a full stadium standing ovation, little blurry, shoulda been a video) and a couple from the Georgetown game were posted live from the action in 4 earlier posts (1, 2, 3, 4). More live posting Saturday we promise. Good night!

He was today, and his name was Omar Samhan.

I get identifying with the significant number Australian players on your team, but the Gaels fans take it to the next level....

This fan was the leader of a suprisingly numerous and vocal group for a California team. Well done I say. Video gives a taste.

Not so well done? The Gaels ridiculous mascot, who is currently bringing nightmares to the 3rd generation of unborn children of anyone who has seen him. I caught him prancing in a way that belied his bizarre physique. But he was afraid to throw down with the Richmond Spider. Compared to Maximus, pictured at the top? WEAKSAUCE in every respect. I booed.

The March has made a solemn vow to get Lundquist and Raftery to acknowledge our presence this weekend. For such a job, you need....ONIONS!

For St. Mary's, it's gotta be the shoes....I think if I comment further I might be breaking a law.

Pretty much. Next game?

We in no way investigated this Brazilian flag as promised. One more crack at it Friday.

Monroe shoots a free throw as we sit in the Georgetown section.

That's pretty much how the game went for the Hoyas. I had to take that picture. I amuse me. Here's video of the final moments, including Greg Monroe fouling out and Ohio celebrations. Good stuff, sorry it's shaky!

UT-SDSU. I became an Aztec tonight....FROM COURTSIDE SEATS BABY!

Oh, you didn't think I'd leave these guys without video documentation, did you? Enjoy!

DJ Gay brings the ball up late in the second half. But it wasn't enough, lots of missed opportunities for Robert Morris and San Diego State to pull upsets. Tough for them. Shankar and I stood at the SDSU tunnel and congratulated the team as they went to the locker room. They played great. Awesome day!!!

Spotted in the Stands: Brazil?

The March is slightly mystified by the presence of a large Brazilian flag in the Ohio fan section. Brazilian player? Solidarity in the color green? We'll investigate...

HALFTIME UPDATE: OHIO 48 GEORGETOWN 36

And the score reflects exactly how each team has played. Pictured above is part of a barren and weak Georgetown fan section, to which the March has relocated for its more midcourt placement. The team is reaping the negative karma for this apathy.

Georgetown has been listless and completely unfocused. Ohio has executed very well and hit a lot of big shots. Remains to be seen if the Bobcats can keep this level of play up, or if the Hoyas will figure out that Greg Monroe is, you know, a lottery pick.

Things to be discussed on a later post...strippers outside the arena between sessions. Stay tuned.

DUNKIN DRAMA!! VILLANOVA 73 ROBERT MORRIS 70 IN OT!

The March just watched a rare 2 vs 15 thriller in person. We are heartbroken for Robert Morris, who put on a valiant performance highlighted by the heroics of freshman sensation Karon Abraham. The whole arena was on the Colonials' side by the end, due in no small part to a number of questionable calls that went 'Nova's way. Abraham put on a show, with an unforgettable circus shot in the 2nd half and a huge deep 3 late in OT. But 'Nova did just barely enough, avoiding double OT just barely. An incredible slate of games to kick off the tourney! Richmond vs St. Mary's underway in front of us, probably no updates until after the game because of battery issues....The March apologizes.

HALFTIME UPDATE: 28-22 Robert Morris over Villanova

In a pretty lackluster first half, neither team has done much to recommend themselves, and Villanova is only validating complaints about their high seed. Robert Morris has been able to keep the Wildcats off the glass, and is shooting slightly better, but if they lose a close one the will only have themselves to blame for not taking more advantage of an anemic first half from Jay Wright's crew.

However, in better news, the Dunk is quite a cozy arena with great sightlines. Back after the 2nd half!

GO!

AND WE'RE OFF!!

On Your Marks....

The March is racing up 95 from our hotel to make the tip of 2 Villanova vs 15 Robert Morris in the Duke...oops *South* region. I'm also obligated to trumpet the buzzer beating win by my Memphis Tigers over St. Johns last night on the NIT. I believe the winning plays were made by Wesley Witherspoon's TITANIC BALLS. If the Little Dance has produced this much drama so far...the Big Dance could be EPIC. The March is giddy, we hope you are too!

South Region: First Round Preview

We're just a few hours from tip in Providence and elsewhere. Here's my last regional preview.

1-Duke*
16-Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Okay, I'll say it: This is a good Duke team, and I think they're Final Four bound. (Now let's see if this jinx works.)

8-California
9-Louisville*

I'm not that high on Louisville, and this is a good matchup for Cal, but I'm picking the Cards on principle. I hope they teach the Selection Committee a thing or two. Either way, I think Duke is headed to the Sweet 16. (That should do it.)

5-Texas A&M
12-Utah State*

An Agricultural War descends on Spokane as the Aggies of Texas take on the Aggies of Utah. This is another 5-12 matchup that is a much closer call than the seeding suggests. In the past 5 years, I've twice put my faith in Utah State to pull an upset from a double-digit seed. They came agonizingly close last year, but haven't gotten over the hump. On the flip side, it's been two years in a row that A&M has confounded me by defeating an offensively-efficient team from Utah in the Tournament's first round (BYU twice, for those keeping score). Third time's the charm? An experienced senior point guard, a potent inside-outside attack, a venue not too far from home, and a matchup with another team that prefers a slower pace may be enough to get Utah's Aggies over the hump. At the end of the day, I'm picking with my heart on this one.

4-Purdue*
13-Siena

Yes, Purdue is without Robbie Hummel and just got pasted by Minnesota by 27 points. Yes, Siena has won first round tournament games two years in a row. No, that does not mean you can chalk this up as an upset. The key to the Boilers' post-Hummel offense is Jajuan Johnson. In the two games they've lost in the last few weeks, his relatively low FG% has stood out. It's not clear that the Saints match up well against him. An upset wouldn't be a surprise, but this is not necessarily the sure pick that many seem to think it is.

3-Baylor*
14-Sam Houston State

Baylor is playing some pretty good basketball. Their ball-handling and defensive rebounding leave a bit to be desired, but Sam Houston State is not likely to exploit these weaknesses.

6-Notre Dame*
11-Old Dominion

An upset here would be no surprise, but it's tough to pick against the Irish the way they've been playing of late. For once, Mike Brey seems to have figured things out defensively. The Irish will have to contain ODU's inside game and control their own glass.

7-Richmond*
10-St. Mary's

This might be the most intriguing matchup of the first round, and the March will be there live and in person. Richmond's methodical Princeton offense versus St. Mary's high-powered inside-out attack. Both teams like to shoot the 3, and both defend the 3 well. If someone can get the upper hand from beyond the arc, they could be in the driver's seat, but if not, it may come down to rebounding, turnovers, and which team is more successful scoring underneath (Richmond with its cutting and passing, or St. Mary's with Samhan in the post). It's a pick 'em. I'll go with the team that has the shorter travel distance and the mascot more likely to frighten small children.

2-Villanova*
15-Robert Morris

I don't think Nova deserved a 2 seed, but here they are, facing an overmatched Robert Morris team.

East Region: First Round Preview

The March has arrived in Providence. Here's an early morning preview of the East Region first round.

1-Kentucky*
16-ETSU

I'm looking forward to seeing UK go down, but it's not going to happen here.

8-Texas*
9-Wake Forest

The Selection Committee has a sense of humor. I like Texas to come out of this matchup of volatile underachievers, but really, anything could happen. Expect a tough battle under the basket.

5-Temple*

12-Cornell

Might be the most fascinating first-round matchup in the entire Tournament. First there's Fran Dunphy matching wits with his former assistant Steve Donahue in an unlikely Ivy coach versus former Ivy coach matchup. Then there's the unstoppable force versus immovable object nature of the matchup, as the best 3-point shooting team in the country takes on the second-best three-point defense in the country. Who will budge? Finally, the favorite is the team who got pounded by Kansas by 30 points on its own floor, and the underdog is the team who nearly upset Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. It's a legitimate upset pick, but in the end, I suspect that master bests pupil.

4-Wisconsin*
13-Wofford

The Badgers tend to be much better at home than on the road, and they've also tended to underperform in the Tournament when given a high seed. Throw in Wofford's strong form, and there's an outside chance at an upset. But I wouldn't bet on it.

3-New Mexico*
14-Montana

The last time Steve Alford took a team to a 3 seed, it ended with a buzzer-beating defeat. The prospect of facing Anthony Johnson (and his teammates) might giving poor Steve flashbacks. With their star guard and capable 3-point shooting, Montana is probably the most likely 14 seed upset. But it's not clear that their defense is strong enough to pull it off.

6-Marquette
11-Washington*

This looks like a good matchup for the Huskies. They attack the basket and rebound the offensive glass well -- areas where Marquette's defense is weakest. And Washington denies the 3-point shot that Marquette relies on. Marquette may be the better team, but Washington may win this game.

7-Clemson*
10-Missouri

80 minutes of hell? A fascinating game that will feature two teams of Tigers who liberally employ the full-court press diagrammed to the left. Clemson seems less equipped to take what they dish out, with a questionable turnover rate. But they may be able to make up for these missed shots with second-chance points -- Missouri is woeful on the defensive glass. Clemson has also been effective at stifling the 3-point shot, from which Missouri gets about 30% of its points. On top of all that, Mizzou just hasn't been the same since Justin Safford went down with an ACL injury.

2-West Virginia
15-Morgan State

The 'Eers may outscore Morgan State on second chance points alone.

West Region: First Round Preview

Last post before heading off for Providence, which the March will be reaching late tonight. A quick preview of the first round in the West. The most interesting pod here is the 4-5-12-13; I could honestly see any of those teams coming through to the Sweet Sixteen.

1-Syracuse*
16-Vermont

I certainly don't think it will happen, but I give Vermont a shooter's chance of pulling an upset over a Syracuse team that has lost two straight and will be without Arinze Onuaku. The senior-laden Catamounts' team plays fairly good defense and can exploit the Cuse's poor defensive rebounding. The big problem for Vermont is their poor 3-point shooting, which could doom them against Syracuse's vaunted zone defense.

8-Florida State*
9-Gonzaga

FSU should win on the strength of defense and rebounding, but could be done in by turnovers. If they do win, I give them fair odds of upsetting an Onuaku-less Syracuse team in the second round.


4-Vanderbilt
13-Murray State*

Upset Special. Murray State is a pretty complete, pretty balanced team. They have a couple weaknesses (defensive rebounding, turnovers) that Vanderbilt is not well-equipped to exploit. The Racers have a good enough chance that it's fun to pick them.

5-Butler*
12-UTEP

This may be the most wide open pod. This matchup poses problems for both teams. UTEP is foul-prone, and Butler lives at the charity stripe. On the other hand, the Bulldogs could have a lot of trouble with the Miners' primary offensive weapon, Derrick Caracter (as they did with Greg Monroe in the loss to Georgetown). I'm gonna stick with the Bulldogs here, but mostly because I find it too close to call, and I just want them to win.

3-Pittsburgh*
14-Oakland

Expect Pitt to continue its fine late season form and set up a potential rematch of last year's great Sweet Sixteen tilt against Xavier.

6-Xavier*
11-Minnesota

Minnesota can light it up from downtown, but Xavier has been stifling opponents' 3-point shooting all year.

7-BYU*
10-Florida

BYU has let me down before, but they really are underseeded here, and they're facing a Florida team that stumbled ass backwards into the Tournament.

2-Kansas State*
15-North Texas

Their ferocious rebounding and ability to get to the free throw line makes it hard to upset Kansas State.

Midwest Region: First Round Preview

A quick preview of first round games in the top-heavy Midwest region, with my picks marked with an asterisk. I don't see a serious threat of any major upsets, but the middle seed games are tough to call.

1-Kansas*
16-Lehigh

Shouldn't be close.

8-UNLV*
9-Northern Iowa

Both teams take a lot of 3s, and both teams allow a lot of 3s to be taken, so the game could be decided from beyond the arc in what is likely to be a low-possession contest. Who is likelier to hit their shots. UNLV has been a better 3-point shooting team later in the season and on the road, so I'll take the Runnin' Rebs.

5-Michigan State*
12-New Mexico State

MSU may win based on rebounding domination alone, but they need to be wary of NMSU's 3-point shooting. The Spartans tend to give up a lot of points from behind the arc, and the Aggies love to Run and Gun.

4-Maryland*
13-Houston

If Maryland takes reasonably good care of the ball against Houston's uptempo, turnover-generating defense, they should be fine. In other words, more like the home win over Clemson than the road loss. The terrible first half against Georgia Tech notwithstanding, the Terps have been pretty good down the stretch.

6-Tennessee*
11-San Diego State

I'm expecting a somewhat wild, perhaps ugly, game. Tennessee likes to put opponents on the free throw line, and San Diego State likes to shoot about 60% from there. Tennessee likes to generate turnovers, and San Diego State likes to commit them. On the other hand, SDSU likes to give up 3s, and Tennessee likes to miss them. SDSU likes to rebound hard on the offensive glass, and Tennessee likes to let their opponents do that. It's hard to see whose deficienices will carry the day, but in a close game, a team that doesn't take care of the ball or shoot well from the line may be in trouble. I hate to say it, but I think the Ugly Naked Guy could be headed for the second round.

3-Georgetown*
14-Ohio

The Hoyas are playing well, and Ohio is not a great team.

7-Oklahoma State
10-Georgia Tech*

I'd just like to point out that Georgia Tech has a guy named Brian Oliver (no relation to the former Yellow Jacket) and Glen Rice (son of the former Michigan star). That's pretty awesome. As for the game itself, which pits a disappointing underachiever against an impressive overachiever, it's another one that's hard to call. The Cowboys could have trouble controlling Tech's size, and Tech could have trouble controlling the ball. I'll go with Georgia Tech, though as with the 6-11 game, I'll be rooting for the team I didn't pick.

2-Ohio State
15-UC-Santa Barbara

The Buckeyes have been great since Evan Turner's return.

"Play-in Game? We don't need no stinkin' Play-in game!"

...says the NIT! Holy crap! Jacksonville just delivered yet another deliciously humiliating blow to the Pac-10 by downing Arizona State on a 23-foot banked 3 by Ben Smith with 1 second remaining, 67-66! Just an incredible last 2 minutes for that game!

Now that's March Madness!

It (sort of) Begins: Play-in Game, Bracket Gripes, Tear Jerking Player Stories!

I'm obligated to note the result of the shameful, but sort of necessary, "play-in" game. The UAPB Golden Lions defeated Winthrop 61-44 for the right to play Duke in the "Here, Duke, have a Final Four!" bracket, a.k.a the South. If I were Ohio State, Georgetown, or Kansas, I would be seething about Duke's path to the Final Four, not to mention West Virginia and Syracuse. Duke got the worst 2 in Villanova, the worst 3 in Baylor, and a 4 seed in Purdue that got crushed in embarrassing fashion by Minnesota in the Big 10 tournament. The same Minnesota that was exposed badly by Ohio State in the Big 10 final.

I'd like to second the concerns raised by this ESPN blog post. The March is agitated, in principle if not in practice because we get to see it in person, by a 7-10 matchup in the South that pits Richmond against St. Mary's, when there's nothing that should have prevented the committee from splitting up those 2 non-BCS teams. Let's take a look at the 2 matchups that will force a non-power conference team from the tournament when they could have tried to prove themselves against a power conference team just as easily, shall we?

8 UNLV vs 9 Northern Iowa (in Oklahoma City), 7 Richmond vs. 10 St. Mary's (in Providence). The UNLV and Richmond games are serious shames, as all 4 teams in those games are capable of advancing at their seed, and also were not as thoroughly disappointing as some of the teams in the following matchups.

Why couldn't these matchups have been split up and distributed differently among these other games? 8 Texas vs 9 Wake Forest (in New Orleans), 8 Cal vs 9 Louisville (in Jacksonville), 7 Oklahoma State vs 10 Georgia Tech (in Milwaukee), 7 Clemson vs 10 Missouri (in Buffalo).

The only team in that group that actually somewhat overachieved was Oklahoma State. All the other ones crapped the bed for extended periods of this season. Georgia Tech has 2 first round draft picks in their frontcourt and barely made it in! Texas-Wake and Cal-'Ville are just exercises in disappointment. It makes me angry just to see those underachieving teams (particularly the egregiously over-seeded Cal and the "lost 4 out of 5 coming in" Wake). It's like they somehow mutually reinforce the fan's disappointment in the other team.

At this level, you're not protecting teams as far as location all that much, but even if you take travel into account, so why not send Northern Iowa to New Orleans vs. former number 1 (remember?) Texas, send Louisville to Oklahoma City vs UNLV, and send Wake Forest to Jacksonville vs. Cal (possibly the only unfair situation because Cal would be badly outnumbered in Jacksonville, but it's not like there won't be a ton more Louisville than Cal fans in Jacksonville).

Revised 8-9 Matchups:

• 8 UNLV vs 9 Louisville (Oklahoma City): Come on, this is just juicy. Two intense teams, lots of athletes, UNLV's defense, and UK transfer Derrick Jasper possibly coming back from injury for the Runnin' Rebels to play against the Cards!
• 8 Texas vs 9 Northern Iowa (New Orleans): UNI's smothering D against former number 1 (did I already mention that?) Texas' plethora of scoring options. Anti-Muslim epithets hurled by Longhorn fans against Ali Farokhmanesh! What's not to like?
• 8 Cal vs 9 Wake Forest (Jacksonville): Instead of the 2 exercises in mutual disappointment we have now, this would be the only one.

I have no idea why this didn't happen. Don't tell me you can't move teams around at this level of the S-Curve. The 9 seeds arguably represent the 33rd to 36th best teams in the field. Gimme a break. Disappointing.

Moving to the 7-10 games, it's simpler. Just switch St. Mary's with either Georgia Tech or Mizzou. Why couldn't this happen? Seeing the Spiders try to prove itself against either the Ramblin' Wreck or the Tigers (and, conversely, seeing the Big Boys try to come up with the same intensity as a team that's scrapped for everything it's gotten this year in the quality A-10) is so much more desirable than watching a Richmond-St. Mary's game where you just feel bad one of them has to leave at the end. Rooting for the little guy drives the first weekend of the NCAA tournament! Actual rooting interests make people (those who aren't gambling), you know, want to watch. And how about the rare matchup of either St. Mary's vs. Ok. St./Clemson? What's the downside?!?!?

One of the other shames of the bracket is the 5 Temple vs 12 Cornell game. Temple deserved a higher seed for winning the A-10 regular season and tourney titles against a tough slate. The blowout loss to Kansas was bad, but the A-10 deserved more respect. Cornell was probably at least slightly underseeded.

The March is also personally disappointed that 3 New Mexico has to play 14 Montana. The Mountain West (my new crush) regular season champ Lobos play against the miracle story of championship week, Anthony F&$%ing Johnson! To reinforce my disappointment, New Mexico star Darington Hobson was profiled in touching fashion by ESPN, which strangely reprised the "Nevada person referring to black-ness of left-handed basketball player" theme of Harry Reid's delicate comments about President Obama:

"He's tall and light-skinned, and his game is real smooth," explained Reggie, a former football player at UNLV. "He was like a tall stick of butter. Long and skinny."

Hobson, "who by age 22 had attended five high schools and a junior college," could not enroll at UNM out of high school because of his academic travels and travails, and when he finally reached campus he was brought to tears:

You always wished that you were there and playing on that level. When I finally got there, I just sat in my room and just thanked God and cried for a couple of hours because I finally got to the place where I always wanted to get.

There were times I never thought I'd get there.

Meanwhile, ESPN's Andy Katz wrote an even more touching profile of Montana superhero Anthony Johnson, featuring the incredible efforts of his girlfriend-then-wife, Montana player Shaunte Nance-Johnson:

There have been package deals going on for quite a while in college basketball. But the majority of time they always involve a coach and a player, maybe a father and a player, but rarely if ever have you heard of a couple that had to come together and play basketball.

Shaunte and Anthony, both now 23 years old were married on Nov. 1, 2006, prior to the start of the Yakima season.

"He wasn't recruited, there were grade issues so he needed an extra semester to graduate from high school,'' Tinkle said. "She got him to go to a junior college. She's the one that got him to play.''

The package deal didn't stop at the junior college level. Johnson said he could have gone to other schools, even though Montana was the first to pursue him. But the two had to go together. Tinkle and women's coach Robin Selvig were in agreement that they had to take the pair.

"Robin told me after 10 minutes of offering Shaunte a scholarship, he said you've got Anthony too,'' Tinkle said.

Anthony and Shaunte have now completed the rare double -- both contributed to a NCAA appearance for Montana.

Why do we have to ensure that either Hobson or Johnson goes home before the weekend? Why?!?!

I'm frustrated, and I still hate Duke. Thoughts?

The Final Product

After all the hand-wringing and debate, here's the bracket. The March will be in Providence at the tastily-named Dunkin' Donuts center for a Thursday-Saturday pod. Our matchups are 6 Tennessee vs 11 San Diego State, 3 Georgetown vs 14 Ohio, 7 Richmond vs 10 St. Mary's, and 2 Villanova vs. 15 Robert Morris. A perfectly respectable slate. Rest assured that with a team from my newly-beloved Mountain West playing against the obnoxious orange team, I will be billing myself an honorary Aztec for the weekend.

NCAA SELECTION SHOW LIVEBLOGGING!

Our Last Five In, First Three Out

For those who don't want to read the full post below:

Last Five In: Illinois, Minnesota, UTEP, Virginia Tech, Utah State.

First Three Out: Florida, Mississippi State, California

The State of the Bubble Nation: 10 Minutes To Go

No time for pleasantries. Let's get right to the math.

The Locks

I now have 29 at-large locks. This list looks slightly different than yesterday's because I have removed all the locks who won auto bids.

ACC (5): Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Big East (7): Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville

Big Ten (3): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State

Big 12 (6): Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (2): Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

The Bubble

There are 5 at-large bids left.

Bubble teams below. In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.

ACC (1):

• Virginia Tech (RPI 59, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - It'll be tough to leave out an ACC team with a 23-8 (10-7 conference) record, but the Hokies don't have an excuse for such a weak SOS. Wins over Clemson, Wake, and Georgia Tech in the past month may be enough to see them through, but Va Tech has made it tough on themselves. Even Odds.

Big East (2):

• Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Strong lean OUT.


• Seton Hall (RPI 61, SOS 32, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - With Minnesota and Mississippi State scoring big wins yesterday, the Pirates' chances are sliding. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that is unlikely to be enough. Lean OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Illinois (RPI 72, SOS 39, 5-9 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Illini scored a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. That gives them 5 wins against top 35 teams, a feat unmatched by any other team on this list except Minnesota. Yes, they struggled down the stretch and yes the RPI is still rough, but things are starting to look up for Illinois. Lean IN.


• Minnesota (RPI 60, SOS 44, 5-7 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A thumping of Purdue yesterday followed by their own thumping at the hands of OSU today. It's tough to leave out a team with 5 top 50 wins, including wins against Ohio State and Purdue and a nice non-con win against Butler. They also have a road win at Illinois. Lean IN.

SEC (3):

• Florida (RPI 54, SOS 36, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With the loss to Mississippi State Friday, the Gators should be sweating. Two of their three best wins were very early in the season, and none came on the road. They have a solid record against 51-100, but it may not be enough. Even Odds.


• Ole Miss (RPI 58, SOS 64, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Friday’s loss to Tennessee was the end of the line for Ole Miss. As I’ve noted, while they have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Strong lean OUT.


• Mississippi State (RPI 57, SOS 104, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 7-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A much-needed win over Vanderbilt yesterday followed by a heartbreaking loss to UK today. Is it enough, given they have just one other top 50 win (against Old Dominion)? Even Odds.

Atlantic-10 (2):

• Rhode Island (RPI 38, SOS 87, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Yesterday's loss to Temple left the Rams with just one top 50 win. With a rough performance down the stretch, they look NIT bound. Lean OUT.


• Dayton (RPI 53, SOS 31, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With a rough 3-6 record down the stretch and a thoroughly mediocre performance away from home, things aren’t looking good for the Flyers. Lean OUT.

Pac-10 (2) (Note: One of these teams will win an auto bid):

• California (RPI 22, SOS 15, 1-5 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 18-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - A fascinating test case. An RPI of 21 and the regular season Pac-10 champions, but just one top 50 win against a team that beat them in their other two meetings. No meaningful road wins. Even Odds.

Conference USA (2) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• UTEP (RPI 38, SOS 111, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
  - While they have no marquee wins, they have a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak that preceded yesterday’s collapse against Houston. Their resume is very similar to Utah State, but their wins against 51-100 are more impressive and included a lot of road games. Lean IN.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 31, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) - Here we go again. The Aggies put themselves in a terrible bind with last night's loss to NMSU. Even with the 16-game winning streak preceding last night's game, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.

The Bottom Line

I think it comes down to 8 teams for 5 spots: Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Mississippi State, Cal, UTEP, and Utah State. I like Illinois and Minnesota for the quality top 50 wins. I like UTEP for the strong run down the stretch and the road wins. I like Virginia Tech for the solid overall record and three wins against tourney-bound teams in the last month of the season, including one on the road (though that weak non-con SOS could bite them in the butt). The last team is tough to pick.

As unlikely as it is, I just don't see any fair rationale for sending Cal to the tournament, notwithstanding the institutional biases. They should be out. Florida has strong wins against Florida State and Michigan State, but they were early, and it's hard to put them in over Mississippi State after just losing to them. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have an unimpressive overall body of work. Srinivas and I batted these three teams around for a bit, and at the end of the day, it's a bit of a coin flip. We're going to go with Utah State on the strength of their closing run and 2 out of 3 wins against the top 50.

That leaves us with the following scenario:

ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Big East (9): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (6): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

WAC (2): New Mexico State, Utah State

West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Pac-10 (1): Washington

Conference USA (2): Houston, UTEP

Auto Bid Alert: OHIO STATE

Bye bye Minnesota. Evan Turner, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler put an absolute hurting on the Gophers in the second half, sending them packing and out of the tourney field most likely. Turner finished with 31 and 11 on 12/18 shooting. He could have quite a tourney run ahead of him. Final Score, Ohio State 90-61. Ohio State makes a strong case for a 1 seed, though I think it's between Duke and West Virginia. Selection Show next!

Auto Bid Alert: TEMPLE, KENTUCKY, DUKE

Holy crap. That's really all I can come up with to describe the ACC and SEC championship games. First, the A-10 championship game showed the quality of the league, deserving of the three bids going to Temple, Richmond, and Xavier. Temple accomplished quite a feat in this topsy turvy championship week, never trailing in the A-10 tourney. Richmond whittled the lead down to 1 in the final moments, but Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks combined to score 30 points and ensure the Owls would take the title and the automatic bid. Richmond's Kevin Anderson put on quite a display of toughness to keep Richmond in it, but it wasn't quite enough. Final score, Temple 56-52.

Now to the big stories. Not much more to say other than big players came up big. In the SEC championship, Mississippi State perhaps missed out on a tourney bid by exactly 0.1 seconds. MSU was seemingly in control after a huge Ravern Johnson 3 put them up 5 with 2:29 left in regulation. But Jarvis Varnado and Dee Bost missed free throws down the stretch, leaving MSU only up 3 with 7.8 seconds left. UK inbounded to Eric Bledsoe, and Barry Stewart fouled him (and fouled out) with 5 seconds left before he could get up a shot. Bledsoe made the first, then executed a beautiful high, soft miss that bounced to John Wall in the right corner. Wall put up a 3 that barely drew rim, and Demarcus Cousins was in the right place, putting in the tying layup with 0.1 seconds on the clock. MSU played valiantly in overtime, last leading at 67-66 with 2:41 left. But the combination of heartbreak, fatigue, Wall, and Cousins proved fatal to MSU's title hopes. Wall hit an amazing off balance 3 from the left wing in front of the UK bench with 26 seconds left to put the Cats up 5, and after an MSU bucket by Dee Bost, Cousins hit 1 of 2 free throws to put Kentucky up 4, and that was all she wrote. MSU hit a 3 as time expired, but UK had done just enough. Final score, UK 75-74.

I was paying such close attention to the SEC that I didn't notice Georgia Tech creep back into the ACC championship, pulling within 60-57 with 1:48 left, and then Iman Shumpert made a beautiful dish to Derrick Favors to get the Ramblin' Wreck within 1 with 48 seconds left. Then, doing his best John Wall impression, Jon Scheyer hit an off-balance 3 from the right wing while fading left with 18 seconds left to ice it. Final score, Duke 65-61.

So we found out this week that apparently Da'Sean Butler, Evan Turner, Jon Scheyer, John Wall, and Demarcus Cousins have what it takes to make winning plays in the biggest moments. They better. All that's left to find out before the Selection Show is whether Minnesota can punch their ticket. I was right again:

Don't let my general disappointment in the quality of play this season mislead you into thinking March won't be March. No matter what the regular season was like, the combination of desperation and skill always makes for the best sports spectacle of the year, every year, and without really dominant teams, the ride will be even more thrilling.

Auto Bid Alert: NEW MEXICO STATE, WEST VIRGINIA

Apologies for the late update on last night's auto bids, but this half of the March engaged in a little early St. Patty's day merriment at Irish bars in Philly.

Huge bubble news as New Mexico State joins Houston as bid stealers, with a 69-63 win over likely at-large dancer Utah State in the WAC championship game. NMSU relied once again on the gutty play of guard Jahmar Young, who sank Nevada in the semi-final on the Wolfpack's home court with an elbow game-winner. He didn't disappoint Saturday night, hitting a tough baseline runner over a double team to put the game out of reach for USU. The Aggies bring some excellent All-Name candidates to the Dance, such as Hamidu Rahman, Hernst Laroche, and my favorite, Troy Gillenwater. This result definitely changes things for bubble teams like Virginia Tech and Illinois, and makes today's championships most likely must-wins for Minnesota and Mississippi State, and maybe even Georgia Tech.

In the Big East title, game, Georgetown started off sizzling, and largely played well throughout, but West Virginia clamped down on defense from the mid-point of the first half onwards, and of course Da'Sean Butler continued his ridiculous clutch shot streak fto propel the Mountaineers to their first ever Big East tourney title, 60-58. Georgetown looks like a 2 or 3 seed in terms of level of play, but their resume will push them down to a 4 or 5. Hard to see the committee's "eye test" letting them make the Hoyas a 6. Very dangerous 4 or 5, setting up a possible dynamite Sweet 16 matchup against an unlucky 1 seed. Oh, and this time when West Virginia won a title in the Garden, they spelled the school's name right. Oh NIT, you try so hard....

Butler's heroics below. Now I diligently watch the ACC, SEC, and A-10 championships.

Auto Bid Alert: ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF

In a largely ho-hum affair, the Golden Lions punched their first-ever tickets to the Big Dance, 50-38 over the Texas Southern Tigers, who might have done well to slip assistant coaches Nick Van Exel and Vin Baker into uniform. Ok, maybe not Baker. UAPB started out the season 0-11, all on the road, with losses to Colorado, Denver, UTEP, Akron, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri, Kansas State, and Oregon. Yup, 0-11. But they went 14-4 in the SWAC and made it to the title game by stealing an inbounds and hitting the winning bucket with 1 second left in their 46-44 semifinal win over Alabama State. Congrats to the Golden Lions. Now give your mascot a haircut.