Five more minutes

If for some unknown reason you are reading this blog, but do not have your television on, TURN IT ON. In a tournament full of incredible games, the knockdown, dragout war between Kansas State and Xavier lands firmly at the top of the heap.

And it's not even over.

Oh, and Gus Johnson is calling it.

The Butler Did It!

An incredible 11-0 run in the last 4 minutes of the game, which bookended a 12-1 to start the game, just put Butler 1 win away from a dream Final Four in their hometown of Indianapolis. Oh, and it sent another #1 seed packing.

I haven't been high on Syracuse and, in fact, thought that without Arinze Onuaku, they wouldn't get past the first weekend of the Tournament. But I didn't expect them to lose tonight. Neither of the 'Cuse's two critical weaknesses -- turnovers and defensive rebounding -- plays into Butler's strengths. But apparently the Orange didn't need a lot of help coughing the ball up. The 18-7 turnover disparity was the first key to Butler's win. It meant that the Bulldogs took 4 more shots from the field and 7 more from the free throw line. Gotta shoot to score.

The second key stat, equally odd, was Butler's 16-for-28 shooting inside the arc. The Bulldogs typically rely on threes, and per usual, they shot a boatload tonight. But they only hit 25% from downtown. They more than made up for it by poking their way into the seams of Syracuse's zone. Missing Onuaku didn't help.

Take heart, Syracuse fans. You have plenty of company in the Big East comfort room, where your rivals from DC, Philly, and Pittsburgh have been licking their wounds. And don't say we didn't warn you:

The March has said all season long that this is a down year across the board in college hoops, and that the tournament would be chaotic, um, madness as a result. With Kansas down, there are some happy folks in Lexington, Syracuse, and Durham, but they best beware. The Madness has barely begun.

Close Encounters

The March is taking in tonight's slate of games at Dave & Buster's in downtown Providence, where we have been joined by . . . the Tennessee basketball team. Bobby Maze, the Vols' resident drama queen, sat directly to my right, until he decided that he could not stand my foul stench and decided to sit next to Srinivas. (More likely, he wanted a better view of the Duke game to cheer on his buddy Nolan Smith.) The evidence:


Word on the street is that the Villanova team will be in later this evening.

UPDATE: Srinivas adds (courtesy of his Facebook page):

Srinivas Ayyagari

I'm sitting next to Vol guard Bobby Maze at the bar. He has a *stack* of D&B arcade tickets. HELLO? NCAA VIOLATION! Also fighting urge to heckle J.P. Prince to his face.

39 minutes ago

Srinivas Ayyagari

Bobby Maze just bounced from the bar to elsewhere in D&B's, but not before engaging in a literally *10 second long* handshake/combo/ritual with one of his boys. Not exaggerating at all. Multiple people watching openmouthed.

36 minutes ago

Admissions Day

Dear Messrs. Thomas, Farokhmanesh, Pondexter, and Smith:

Thank you for your applications. We have enjoyed reviewing them and are pleased to inform you that you have been accepted for admission to our storied institution.

We are also delighted to inform you that this is one of our largest single-day admission classes ever.

Welcome.

Sincerely,

The March History Books

South Region: First Round Preview

We're just a few hours from tip in Providence and elsewhere. Here's my last regional preview.

1-Duke*
16-Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Okay, I'll say it: This is a good Duke team, and I think they're Final Four bound. (Now let's see if this jinx works.)

8-California
9-Louisville*

I'm not that high on Louisville, and this is a good matchup for Cal, but I'm picking the Cards on principle. I hope they teach the Selection Committee a thing or two. Either way, I think Duke is headed to the Sweet 16. (That should do it.)

5-Texas A&M
12-Utah State*

An Agricultural War descends on Spokane as the Aggies of Texas take on the Aggies of Utah. This is another 5-12 matchup that is a much closer call than the seeding suggests. In the past 5 years, I've twice put my faith in Utah State to pull an upset from a double-digit seed. They came agonizingly close last year, but haven't gotten over the hump. On the flip side, it's been two years in a row that A&M has confounded me by defeating an offensively-efficient team from Utah in the Tournament's first round (BYU twice, for those keeping score). Third time's the charm? An experienced senior point guard, a potent inside-outside attack, a venue not too far from home, and a matchup with another team that prefers a slower pace may be enough to get Utah's Aggies over the hump. At the end of the day, I'm picking with my heart on this one.

4-Purdue*
13-Siena

Yes, Purdue is without Robbie Hummel and just got pasted by Minnesota by 27 points. Yes, Siena has won first round tournament games two years in a row. No, that does not mean you can chalk this up as an upset. The key to the Boilers' post-Hummel offense is Jajuan Johnson. In the two games they've lost in the last few weeks, his relatively low FG% has stood out. It's not clear that the Saints match up well against him. An upset wouldn't be a surprise, but this is not necessarily the sure pick that many seem to think it is.

3-Baylor*
14-Sam Houston State

Baylor is playing some pretty good basketball. Their ball-handling and defensive rebounding leave a bit to be desired, but Sam Houston State is not likely to exploit these weaknesses.

6-Notre Dame*
11-Old Dominion

An upset here would be no surprise, but it's tough to pick against the Irish the way they've been playing of late. For once, Mike Brey seems to have figured things out defensively. The Irish will have to contain ODU's inside game and control their own glass.

7-Richmond*
10-St. Mary's

This might be the most intriguing matchup of the first round, and the March will be there live and in person. Richmond's methodical Princeton offense versus St. Mary's high-powered inside-out attack. Both teams like to shoot the 3, and both defend the 3 well. If someone can get the upper hand from beyond the arc, they could be in the driver's seat, but if not, it may come down to rebounding, turnovers, and which team is more successful scoring underneath (Richmond with its cutting and passing, or St. Mary's with Samhan in the post). It's a pick 'em. I'll go with the team that has the shorter travel distance and the mascot more likely to frighten small children.

2-Villanova*
15-Robert Morris

I don't think Nova deserved a 2 seed, but here they are, facing an overmatched Robert Morris team.

East Region: First Round Preview

The March has arrived in Providence. Here's an early morning preview of the East Region first round.

1-Kentucky*
16-ETSU

I'm looking forward to seeing UK go down, but it's not going to happen here.

8-Texas*
9-Wake Forest

The Selection Committee has a sense of humor. I like Texas to come out of this matchup of volatile underachievers, but really, anything could happen. Expect a tough battle under the basket.

5-Temple*

12-Cornell

Might be the most fascinating first-round matchup in the entire Tournament. First there's Fran Dunphy matching wits with his former assistant Steve Donahue in an unlikely Ivy coach versus former Ivy coach matchup. Then there's the unstoppable force versus immovable object nature of the matchup, as the best 3-point shooting team in the country takes on the second-best three-point defense in the country. Who will budge? Finally, the favorite is the team who got pounded by Kansas by 30 points on its own floor, and the underdog is the team who nearly upset Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. It's a legitimate upset pick, but in the end, I suspect that master bests pupil.

4-Wisconsin*
13-Wofford

The Badgers tend to be much better at home than on the road, and they've also tended to underperform in the Tournament when given a high seed. Throw in Wofford's strong form, and there's an outside chance at an upset. But I wouldn't bet on it.

3-New Mexico*
14-Montana

The last time Steve Alford took a team to a 3 seed, it ended with a buzzer-beating defeat. The prospect of facing Anthony Johnson (and his teammates) might giving poor Steve flashbacks. With their star guard and capable 3-point shooting, Montana is probably the most likely 14 seed upset. But it's not clear that their defense is strong enough to pull it off.

6-Marquette
11-Washington*

This looks like a good matchup for the Huskies. They attack the basket and rebound the offensive glass well -- areas where Marquette's defense is weakest. And Washington denies the 3-point shot that Marquette relies on. Marquette may be the better team, but Washington may win this game.

7-Clemson*
10-Missouri

80 minutes of hell? A fascinating game that will feature two teams of Tigers who liberally employ the full-court press diagrammed to the left. Clemson seems less equipped to take what they dish out, with a questionable turnover rate. But they may be able to make up for these missed shots with second-chance points -- Missouri is woeful on the defensive glass. Clemson has also been effective at stifling the 3-point shot, from which Missouri gets about 30% of its points. On top of all that, Mizzou just hasn't been the same since Justin Safford went down with an ACL injury.

2-West Virginia
15-Morgan State

The 'Eers may outscore Morgan State on second chance points alone.

West Region: First Round Preview

Last post before heading off for Providence, which the March will be reaching late tonight. A quick preview of the first round in the West. The most interesting pod here is the 4-5-12-13; I could honestly see any of those teams coming through to the Sweet Sixteen.

1-Syracuse*
16-Vermont

I certainly don't think it will happen, but I give Vermont a shooter's chance of pulling an upset over a Syracuse team that has lost two straight and will be without Arinze Onuaku. The senior-laden Catamounts' team plays fairly good defense and can exploit the Cuse's poor defensive rebounding. The big problem for Vermont is their poor 3-point shooting, which could doom them against Syracuse's vaunted zone defense.

8-Florida State*
9-Gonzaga

FSU should win on the strength of defense and rebounding, but could be done in by turnovers. If they do win, I give them fair odds of upsetting an Onuaku-less Syracuse team in the second round.


4-Vanderbilt
13-Murray State*

Upset Special. Murray State is a pretty complete, pretty balanced team. They have a couple weaknesses (defensive rebounding, turnovers) that Vanderbilt is not well-equipped to exploit. The Racers have a good enough chance that it's fun to pick them.

5-Butler*
12-UTEP

This may be the most wide open pod. This matchup poses problems for both teams. UTEP is foul-prone, and Butler lives at the charity stripe. On the other hand, the Bulldogs could have a lot of trouble with the Miners' primary offensive weapon, Derrick Caracter (as they did with Greg Monroe in the loss to Georgetown). I'm gonna stick with the Bulldogs here, but mostly because I find it too close to call, and I just want them to win.

3-Pittsburgh*
14-Oakland

Expect Pitt to continue its fine late season form and set up a potential rematch of last year's great Sweet Sixteen tilt against Xavier.

6-Xavier*
11-Minnesota

Minnesota can light it up from downtown, but Xavier has been stifling opponents' 3-point shooting all year.

7-BYU*
10-Florida

BYU has let me down before, but they really are underseeded here, and they're facing a Florida team that stumbled ass backwards into the Tournament.

2-Kansas State*
15-North Texas

Their ferocious rebounding and ability to get to the free throw line makes it hard to upset Kansas State.

Midwest Region: First Round Preview

A quick preview of first round games in the top-heavy Midwest region, with my picks marked with an asterisk. I don't see a serious threat of any major upsets, but the middle seed games are tough to call.

1-Kansas*
16-Lehigh

Shouldn't be close.

8-UNLV*
9-Northern Iowa

Both teams take a lot of 3s, and both teams allow a lot of 3s to be taken, so the game could be decided from beyond the arc in what is likely to be a low-possession contest. Who is likelier to hit their shots. UNLV has been a better 3-point shooting team later in the season and on the road, so I'll take the Runnin' Rebs.

5-Michigan State*
12-New Mexico State

MSU may win based on rebounding domination alone, but they need to be wary of NMSU's 3-point shooting. The Spartans tend to give up a lot of points from behind the arc, and the Aggies love to Run and Gun.

4-Maryland*
13-Houston

If Maryland takes reasonably good care of the ball against Houston's uptempo, turnover-generating defense, they should be fine. In other words, more like the home win over Clemson than the road loss. The terrible first half against Georgia Tech notwithstanding, the Terps have been pretty good down the stretch.

6-Tennessee*
11-San Diego State

I'm expecting a somewhat wild, perhaps ugly, game. Tennessee likes to put opponents on the free throw line, and San Diego State likes to shoot about 60% from there. Tennessee likes to generate turnovers, and San Diego State likes to commit them. On the other hand, SDSU likes to give up 3s, and Tennessee likes to miss them. SDSU likes to rebound hard on the offensive glass, and Tennessee likes to let their opponents do that. It's hard to see whose deficienices will carry the day, but in a close game, a team that doesn't take care of the ball or shoot well from the line may be in trouble. I hate to say it, but I think the Ugly Naked Guy could be headed for the second round.

3-Georgetown*
14-Ohio

The Hoyas are playing well, and Ohio is not a great team.

7-Oklahoma State
10-Georgia Tech*

I'd just like to point out that Georgia Tech has a guy named Brian Oliver (no relation to the former Yellow Jacket) and Glen Rice (son of the former Michigan star). That's pretty awesome. As for the game itself, which pits a disappointing underachiever against an impressive overachiever, it's another one that's hard to call. The Cowboys could have trouble controlling Tech's size, and Tech could have trouble controlling the ball. I'll go with Georgia Tech, though as with the 6-11 game, I'll be rooting for the team I didn't pick.

2-Ohio State
15-UC-Santa Barbara

The Buckeyes have been great since Evan Turner's return.

Our Last Five In, First Three Out

For those who don't want to read the full post below:

Last Five In: Illinois, Minnesota, UTEP, Virginia Tech, Utah State.

First Three Out: Florida, Mississippi State, California

The State of the Bubble Nation: 10 Minutes To Go

No time for pleasantries. Let's get right to the math.

The Locks

I now have 29 at-large locks. This list looks slightly different than yesterday's because I have removed all the locks who won auto bids.

ACC (5): Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Big East (7): Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville

Big Ten (3): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State

Big 12 (6): Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (2): Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

The Bubble

There are 5 at-large bids left.

Bubble teams below. In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.

ACC (1):

• Virginia Tech (RPI 59, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - It'll be tough to leave out an ACC team with a 23-8 (10-7 conference) record, but the Hokies don't have an excuse for such a weak SOS. Wins over Clemson, Wake, and Georgia Tech in the past month may be enough to see them through, but Va Tech has made it tough on themselves. Even Odds.

Big East (2):

• Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Strong lean OUT.


• Seton Hall (RPI 61, SOS 32, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - With Minnesota and Mississippi State scoring big wins yesterday, the Pirates' chances are sliding. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that is unlikely to be enough. Lean OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Illinois (RPI 72, SOS 39, 5-9 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Illini scored a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. That gives them 5 wins against top 35 teams, a feat unmatched by any other team on this list except Minnesota. Yes, they struggled down the stretch and yes the RPI is still rough, but things are starting to look up for Illinois. Lean IN.


• Minnesota (RPI 60, SOS 44, 5-7 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A thumping of Purdue yesterday followed by their own thumping at the hands of OSU today. It's tough to leave out a team with 5 top 50 wins, including wins against Ohio State and Purdue and a nice non-con win against Butler. They also have a road win at Illinois. Lean IN.

SEC (3):

• Florida (RPI 54, SOS 36, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With the loss to Mississippi State Friday, the Gators should be sweating. Two of their three best wins were very early in the season, and none came on the road. They have a solid record against 51-100, but it may not be enough. Even Odds.


• Ole Miss (RPI 58, SOS 64, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Friday’s loss to Tennessee was the end of the line for Ole Miss. As I’ve noted, while they have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Strong lean OUT.


• Mississippi State (RPI 57, SOS 104, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 7-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A much-needed win over Vanderbilt yesterday followed by a heartbreaking loss to UK today. Is it enough, given they have just one other top 50 win (against Old Dominion)? Even Odds.

Atlantic-10 (2):

• Rhode Island (RPI 38, SOS 87, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Yesterday's loss to Temple left the Rams with just one top 50 win. With a rough performance down the stretch, they look NIT bound. Lean OUT.


• Dayton (RPI 53, SOS 31, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With a rough 3-6 record down the stretch and a thoroughly mediocre performance away from home, things aren’t looking good for the Flyers. Lean OUT.

Pac-10 (2) (Note: One of these teams will win an auto bid):

• California (RPI 22, SOS 15, 1-5 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 18-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - A fascinating test case. An RPI of 21 and the regular season Pac-10 champions, but just one top 50 win against a team that beat them in their other two meetings. No meaningful road wins. Even Odds.

Conference USA (2) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• UTEP (RPI 38, SOS 111, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
  - While they have no marquee wins, they have a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak that preceded yesterday’s collapse against Houston. Their resume is very similar to Utah State, but their wins against 51-100 are more impressive and included a lot of road games. Lean IN.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 31, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) - Here we go again. The Aggies put themselves in a terrible bind with last night's loss to NMSU. Even with the 16-game winning streak preceding last night's game, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.

The Bottom Line

I think it comes down to 8 teams for 5 spots: Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Mississippi State, Cal, UTEP, and Utah State. I like Illinois and Minnesota for the quality top 50 wins. I like UTEP for the strong run down the stretch and the road wins. I like Virginia Tech for the solid overall record and three wins against tourney-bound teams in the last month of the season, including one on the road (though that weak non-con SOS could bite them in the butt). The last team is tough to pick.

As unlikely as it is, I just don't see any fair rationale for sending Cal to the tournament, notwithstanding the institutional biases. They should be out. Florida has strong wins against Florida State and Michigan State, but they were early, and it's hard to put them in over Mississippi State after just losing to them. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have an unimpressive overall body of work. Srinivas and I batted these three teams around for a bit, and at the end of the day, it's a bit of a coin flip. We're going to go with Utah State on the strength of their closing run and 2 out of 3 wins against the top 50.

That leaves us with the following scenario:

ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Big East (9): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (6): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

WAC (2): New Mexico State, Utah State

West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Pac-10 (1): Washington

Conference USA (2): Houston, UTEP

Saturday Evening Bid Burglar Update

With Georgia Tech and Duke advancing to the ACC tourney final, and Temple and Richmond to the A-10 championship, there will be no bid stealing in those conferences. This means there will be at least 3 bids for the Bubble teams identified in our last update. So things look good for San Diego State and -- despite their losses today -- Illinois and UTEP.

Elsewhere on the Bubble / Bid Burglar front, Tubby Smith and Minnesota have continued their remarkable Big Ten tourney run with an absolute pounding of Purdue. And Missisippi State is one win closer to pulling off their second straight miracle run to the Tournament via the SEC championship, after a big win over Vandy in the semis. Even if these two teams fall short tomorrow, they may get at-large bids. There are a lot of nervous folks in Blacksburg and Gainesville.

Auto Bid Alert: LEHIGH

"The Rivalry" took center stage last night, as the Patriot League championship was up for grabs when Lehigh Valley rivals Lafayette and Lehigh took the floor in Bethlehem. Lehigh, the regular season champions, controlled the game throughout, leading pretty much from start to finish en route to a 74-59 victory. The Mountain Hawks will have a much tougher time later this week; with an RPI of 157, they could be headed for a 16 seed.

State of the Bubble Nation: Reality Sets In

The Bubble is starting to crash. After yesterday’s orgy of action, much of the speculation has ended, and reality is starting to set in.

I can now say that even in the worst-case scenario, the following teams will make the Tournament: Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Missouri, and UNLV.

Some of those teams earned their lock status by going out and grabbing it, with Georgia Tech posting a huge win over Maryland and UNLV getting an equally big victory over BYU. The rest backed in, as Florida State joined Wake, Louisville, and Missouri with less than impressive performances in their first conference tournament game. Still, I have taken a close look at the math, and cannot see these teams being left out under any scenario (assuming a minimum number of bids for the Bubble, assuming that other Bubble teams perform as well as possible).

How about the rest of the Bubble? San Diego State, Illinois, and Minnesota (whom I had foolishly left off the Bubble) posted big upset wins. Cal, Washington, and Rhode Island took care of business against lesser teams. Ole Miss and Dayton failed to get the big wins they needed, and are now on the outside looking in. And Virginia Tech and Florida guaranteed themselves a nailbiting weekend by losing games they should’ve won.

Let's take a look at where we stand.

The Locks

I now have 35 locks:

ACC (6): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Big East (8): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville

Big Ten (4): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

West Coast (1): Gonzaga [Note: St. Mary's has won the WCC auto bid.]

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids. How many are left after the 35 locks? Well that depends on how many locks win auto bids. If all of the above 7 conference tournaments (excluding the already-played WCC tourney) are won by one of the above teams, the locks will take 28 bids, leaving 6. At the other extreme, if 5 of the above conference tourneys are won by non-locks (excluding the WCC, Big East, and Big 12, for which this cannot be true), the locks will take 33 bids, leaving just 1.

Who is positioned to pick up these 1-6 at-large bids left? We look at the bubble teams, listed by conference, below.

In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.

ACC (1):

• Virginia Tech (RPI 56, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Yesterday, we said the Hokies were in good position for a bid if they could avoid losing to Miami. So much for that. It'll be tough to leave out an ACC team with a 23-8 (10-7 conference) record, but the Hokies don't have an excuse for such a weak SOS. Wins over Clemson, Wake, and Georgia Tech in the past month may be enough to see them through, but Va Tech has made it tough on themselves. Even Odds.

Big East (3):

• Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - Cincy gave themselves a shot with narrow wins over Rutgers and Louisville, but fell short against West Virginia Thursday night. A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Lean OUT.


• Seton Hall (RPI 61, SOS 32, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Pirates needed to impress this week to put them over the top, and they didn't. After a mediocre performance against Providence in which they let the Friars come within a missed last-second 3-pointer of staging a 29-point comeback, the Hall went down to Notre Dame in the second round. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that may not be enough. Even Odds.


• South Florida (RPI 69, SOS 59, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 14-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) -The Bulls held out hope for collapses elsewhere on the Bubble. But with San Diego State, Illinois, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Washington all winning yesterday, that hope is over. OUT.

Big Ten (2):

• Illinois (RPI 72, SOS 39, 5-8 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Illini scored a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. That gives them 5 wins against top 35 teams, a feat unmatched by any other team on this list. Yes, they struggled down the stretch and yes the RPI is still rough, but things are starting to look up for Illinois. Lean IN.


• Minnesota (RPI 65, SOS 54, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Here come the Gophers. I foolishly kept them off the Bubble this week, but they have played their way onto it with a huge victory last night over Michigan State. They now have four top 25 wins. They’re still held back somewhat by the mediocre record outside the top 50. But at this point, they have as good a chance as anyone. A win over Purdue today could send them Dancing. Even Odds.

SEC (3):

• Florida (RPI 51, SOS 33, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With the loss to Mississippi State yesterday, the Gators should be sweating. Two of their three best wins were very early in the season, and none came on the road. They have a solid record against 51-100, but it may not be enough. Even Odds.


• Ole Miss (RPI 58, SOS 64, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Yesterday’s loss to Tennessee was the end of the line for Ole Miss. As I’ve noted, while they have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Lean OUT.


• Mississippi State (RPI 63, SOS 104, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 7-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Bulldogs kept their hopes alive with a win over Florida yesterday. Still, their only top 50 win came against Old Dominion in December, and all those bad losses take their toll. They’ll look to boost their stock even more with a win over Vanderbilt today. Even Odds.

Mountain West (2):

• San Diego State (RPI 24, SOS 57, 3-5 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - A great win for the Aztecs last night against New Mexico means they should be dancing. That strong RPI is now backed by three wins against top 50 teams and a strong record down the stretch. Lean IN.

Atlantic-10 (2):

• Rhode Island (RPI 38, SOS 87, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rams have taken care of business in the first two rounds of the A-10 tourney with wins over St. Joe's and St. Louis. But as I finalize this post, they are putting the finishing touches on a double-digit loss to Temple -- a game they very much needed to win. Without it, they're left with just one top 50 win in 6 tries and a tough record down the stretch. Despite the strong record against 51-100, that likely won't be enough. Lean OUT.


• Dayton (RPI 53, SOS 31, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Dayton blew a fairly big lead last night against Xavier, and with it, they may have blown their Tournament hopes. With a rough 3-6 record down the stretch and a thoroughly mediocre performance away from home, things aren’t looking good for the Flyers. Lean OUT.

Pac-10 (2) (Note: One of these teams will win an auto bid):

• California (RPI 19, SOS 15, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 18-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Bears took care of business to get to the Pac-10 championship game. Even if they lose it, with an RPI that high and a Pac-10 regular season championship in their pocket, it’s hard to see them being left out. Lean IN.


• Washington (RPI 48, SOS 69, 2-2 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, with a middling record against lower-rated teams, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.

Conference USA (2) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• UTEP (RPI 40, SOS 110, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
  - UTEP just blew their hopes of an auto bid with a tentative performance against Houston down the stretch. Still, the Miners have a decent chance of getting an at-large bid (depending on how many are available). While they have no marquee wins, they have a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak that preceded today’s collapse. Lean IN.


• Memphis (RPI 54, SOS 83, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 5-0 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Developments elsewhere send the Tigers to the NIT. They have a solid record against teams rated 51-100, but there are a handful of bad losses and their best wins are against NIT-bound UAB. OUT.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Wichita State (RPI 43, SOS 101, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 8-1 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12)- As with South Florida and Memphis, the Shockers slim hopes have been extinguished by other Bubble teams taking care of business. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. OUT.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 30, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, even with the season-closing 16-game (and counting) winning streak, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.

The Bottom Line

Let’s assume that Cal and Utah State win their conference tournaments and don’t need at-large bids. In the worst case scenario, there would be just one bid left, and it would likely go to Illinois or San Diego State. But in the best case scanrio, there would be 6 bids left. The “lean in” teams – Illinois, San Diego State, and UTEP – would take 3, leaving 3 bids with the following teams best-positioned to take them: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Florida, Missisippi State, and Washington.

If I had to pick now, I’d take Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, and Florida.

That leaves us with the following best-case Bubble scenario:

ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Big East (9): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Pac-10 (1): California

Conference USA (2): Houston, UTEP

Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams, and that Cal and Utah State both win auto bids. If these assumptions don't pan out, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, and Florida will be sweating it even more. And even UTEP, Illinois, and San Diego State might start to fidget.

The "Team Sheet"

By the way, if you want to know what the Selection Committee is looking at when they evaluate the teams, Kyle Whelliston's crew at Basketball State has sample selection sheets for every Division I team. We have kept this in mind when doing our Bubble analyses.

The State of the Bubble Nation: Stage Fright Edition

Um, guys? You're supposed to fight to get in the Tournament, not out.

An already weak Bubble is getting weaker by the day, as the teams on the fence are doing their mightiest to tumble off the wrong side of it. Already precariously perched, UConn, Charlotte, Memphis, and UAB all lost games they were favored to win. Meanwhile, the three teams that I identified as "strong lean in" in Tuesday's update (Wake Forest, Louisville, Missouri) all suffered first-round defeats to inferior teams. Missouri and Wake Forest embarassed themselves in especially impressive fashion, posting double-digit losses to Nebraska and Miami, respectively. The only positive news has come out of Madison Square Garden, where Marquette and Notre Dame have played their way into the Dance, as they continued their fine late-season form.

The way this is all shaking out, if UTEP and Cal win their conference auto bids, it's going to be tough to find 34 teams worthy of an at-large selection. For that reason, a lot of teams that you'd think would be sure OUTs at this point are being labeled only as "Lean OUT" below. On the flip side, it's still possible that some mediocre teams not otherwise in contention for the Tournament will steal some bids and make the Bubble a bit more competitive.

Let's take a look at the math.

The Locks

After this week's early-round conference tourney action, three more teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments: Notre Dame, Marquette, and Gonzaga. That makes 29 locks, listed below by conference:

ACC (3): Duke, Maryland, Clemson

Big East (7): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (4): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State

SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, BYU

West Coast (1): Gonzaga [Note: St. Mary's has won the WCC auto bid.]

The Bubble

There are 34 at-large bids. How many are left after the 29 locks? Well that depends on how many locks win auto bids. If all of the above 7 conference tournaments (excluding the already-played WCC tourney) are won by one of the above teams, the locks will take 22 bids, leaving 12. At the other extreme, if 5 of the above conference tourneys are won by non-locks (excluding the Big East, Big 12, and WCC, for which this cannot be true), the locks will take 27 bids, leaving just 7.

Who is positioned to pick up these 7-12 at-large bids left? We look at the bubble teams, listed by conference, below. (I also explain below why Notre Dame, Marquette, and Gonzaga are now locks.)

In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.

ACC (4):

• Florida State (RPI 34, SOS 47, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 14-0 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - The Seminoles don't have much in the way of marquee wins, but they sport a high RPI, a quartet of top 50 wins, a solid top 100 record, no bad losses, and a nice non-con win against Marquette. A win over NC State today should sew up a bid, but even with a loss, FSU could be Dancing. Lean IN.



• Wake Forest (RPI 37, SOS 28, 6-4 vs. 1-50, 2-4 vs. 51-100, 11-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their terrible 19-point loss to Miami in the first round of the ACC tourney capped a rough end to their season, in which the Demon Deacons lost 4 of their last 5. That, coupled with a mediocre record against teams outside the top 50, has them in a potentially precarious position. With 6 top 50 wins, they are still likely to Dance, but they might be squeezed out if the number of available bids is closer to 8 than 15, and/or if some of the other teams on this list can put together strong conference tourney runs. Lean IN.



• Georgia Tech (RPI 40, SOS 20, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 10-2 vs. 100+, 5-7 last 12) - The Yellow Jackets have stumbled a bit down the stretch, but they righted the ship a bit with a win over UNC yesterday. They've got more top 50 wins than most of the teams on this list, including a big one over Duke. A win over Maryland would cinch the deal, but they're likely in even with a loss. Lean IN.



• Virginia Tech (RPI 53, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-1 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - That weak SOS really stands out and puts a damper on an otherwise stellar 23-7 overall record. Still, with relatively recent wins against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and a strong overall record, the Hokies are reasonably positioned for a bid if they can avoid losing to Miami today. Lean IN.

Big East (7):

• Louisville (RPI 38, SOS 5, 3-7 vs. 1-50, 6-4 vs. 51-100, 11-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Lousiville's RPI continues to be volatile, just like their on-court performance. After the late-season win over Syracuse, the Cardinals were well-positioned for a bid, but an upset loss to Cincinnati in the Big East tourney first round didn't help. Though they've got just two wins on top 50 teams, teh fact that both were against highly-rated Syracuse should be enough to send them Dancing, depending on what happens elsewhere. Strong lean IN.



• Notre Dame (RPI 43, SOS 40, 5-3 vs. 1-50, 7-4 vs. 51-100, 11-3 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) -The Irish picked up a big win over Seton Hall in the second round of the Big East tourney, one that should seal their place in the Tournament. That's five straight wins over quality teams Pitt, Georgetown, UConn, and Marquette). Even in the worst case Bubble scenario, that's enough to get in. IN.



• Marquette (RPI 46, SOS 41, 4-8 vs. 1-50, 6-1 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - The loss to Notre Dame last weekend turned out to be a blip in a stretch during which Marquette has won 10 of 12, including two wins this week over St. John's and Villanova. As with Notre Dame, even under a worst case scenario, the Golden Eagles should be in. IN.



• Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - Cincy gave themselves a shot with narrow wins over Rutgers and Louisville, but fell short against West Virginia last night. A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Lean OUT.



• Seton Hall (RPI 60, SOS 31, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Pirates needed to impress this week to put them over the top, and they didn't. After a mediocre performance against Providence in which they let the Friars come within a missed last-second 3-pointer of staging a 29-point comeback, the Hall went down to Notre Dame in the second round. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that may not be enough. Even Odds.



• UConn (RPI 66, SOS 3, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 5-4 vs. 51-100, 8-2 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - I stuck up for UConn's chances on Tuesday, but there's no defending the Huskies now. Their lackadaisical approach to a must-win game against St. John's resulted in a loss that will send them to the NIT (if they accept the bid). It's disappointing to see one of my favorite college players, Jerome Dyson, go out this way.OUT.



• South Florida (RPI 69, SOS 57, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 14-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Bulls couldn't get the quality win over Georgetown that they needed. They'll need a lot of help -- no bid stealers, the rest of the Bubble collapsing, to have a shot. Strong lean OUT.

Big Ten (1):

• Illinois (RPI 77, SOS 42, 4-8 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Losing to Wisconsin at home on Sunday hurt real bad. That RPI in the 70s is ugly, as is a . Still, they've got a fistful of high-quality wins against RPI top 25 teams (Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin), which puts them in rarified air as far as the Bubble goes. They'll need to avenge their loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney first round. Even Odds.

Big 12 (1):

• Missouri (RPI 44, SOS 44, 4-7 vs. 1-50, 3-0 vs. 51-100, 15-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - In mere days, the Tigers' RPI has plummeted from the low 30s to 44. That's what happens when you lose to a terrible team like Nebraska. (And the RPI doesn't even account for the shameful 15-point margin of defeat.) Missouri built up a good enough resume that they should be able to survive that loss, but things could get tight depending on how things play out elsewhere on the Bubble. Lean IN.

SEC (3):

• Florida (RPI 52, SOS 32, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - Their win against Auburn last night was necessary, but not sufficient. A win over Missisippi State today would strengthen the Gators' case, but it would take one more over Vanderbilt for them to feel comfortable. Even Odds.



• Ole Miss (RPI 56, SOS 72, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rebels have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, but their biggest problem is that they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Three straight losses to Vandy, Florida, and Missisippi State in mid-February may have sunk their season. They've closed it out with four wins (against middling opposition), but will probably need a second round win over Tennessee to get through. Lean OUT.



• Mississippi State (RPI 67, SOS 103, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their only top 50 win came against Old Dominion in December, and all those bad losses take their toll. A win against Florida today is an absolute must, but even that may not get it done. Lean OUT.

Mountain West (2):

• San Diego State (RPI 32, SOS 74, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Aztecs survived with a last-minute victory against Colorado State on Thursday. They have a shiny top 35 RPI and a big win against New Mexico, but little else to go with that. Even Odds.



• UNLV (RPI 50, SOS 110, 4-4 vs. 1-50, 3-0 vs. 51-100, 16-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Runnin' Rebs have an RPI top 50 record as good as almost anyone on this list, and included in that is a highly impressive win at The Pit. Taking care of business against Utah in the MWC tourney quarters should see them through. Lean IN.

Atlantic-10 (3):

• Rhode Island (RPI 41, SOS 95, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rams killed themselves last week with two bad losses against St. Bonaventure and UMass. It's a nice-looking RPI, but with just one top 50 win, it may not be enough. The Rams got a must-win over St. Joe's yesterday, but they'll need to get it done against St. Louis today. Even Odds.



• Dayton (RPI 51, SOS 34, 3-7 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - The Flyers sport a few nice wins, including a 25-point drubbing of in-state rival Xavier. They've also challenged themselves with decent showings against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico. If they can beat Xavier again today, I like their chances. Even Odds.



• Charlotte (RPI 66, SOS 77, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100,15-3 vs. 100+, 5-7 last 12) - The loss to UMass this week capped off a terrible close to the season, during which the 49ers went 1-7. They are NIT-bound. OUT.

West Coast (1):

• Gonzaga (RPI 35, SOS 111, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 4-0 vs. 51-100, 17-2 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - Though I've kept them here on principle, with Bubble teams collapsing around them, the Zags are safe. IN.

Pac-10 (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• California (RPI 20, SOS 13, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 17-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - As down as the Pac-10 is, it's gonna be real tough to keep out their regular season champs when they've got a top 20 RPI. Lean IN.
  
  
• Washington (RPI 49, SOS 64, 2-2 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, with a middling record against lower-rated teams, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.
  
  
• Arizona State (RPI 61, SOS 77, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 19-3 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their loss to Stanford yesterday sent them to the NIT. OUT.

Conference USA (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• UTEP (RPI 39, SOS 117, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 18-1 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
  - No marquee wins, but a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak (and counting) to close the season. Lean IN.



• UAB (RPI 45, SOS 96, 1-3 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Mike Davis' squad completed a characteristic late-season swoon with a bad loss to Southern Mississippi yesterday. They're off the Bubble and into the NIT. OUT.



• Memphis (RPI 55, SOS 85, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 5-0 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - A tough loss to Houston yesterday means the Tigers are likely out. They have a solid record against teams rated 51-100, but there are a handful of bad losses and their best wins are against NIT-bound UAB. Strong lean OUT.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Wichita State (RPI 42, SOS 100, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 8-1 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12)- The Shockers really needed a Bracket Buster win at Utah State, but didn't get it. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. Still, with the Bubble collapsing around them, and a solid record against teams rated 51-100, they've got a very outside shot. Strong lean OUT.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 30, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, even with the season-closing 16-game (and counting) winning streak, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.

MAC (1):

• Kent State (RPI 47, SOS 94, 1-2 vs. 1-50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 17-5 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12)- Getting pummeled by 17 points in the first round of the MAC tourney eliminated their slim at-large hopes. OUT.

The Bottom Line

Let’s assume that Cal, UTEP, and Utah State win their conference tournaments and don’t need at-large bids. The other “lean in” teams (Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Missouri, and UNLV) would take 7 at-large bids. In the worst case scenario, there would be no more at-large bids left. In the best case scenario, there would be 5 more bids left, with the following 6 teams best-positioned to pick them up: Seton Hall, Illinois, Florida, San Diego State, Rhode Island, and Dayton. For now, I’ll drop Illinois from this list on the assumption they lose to Wisconsin today. That leaves us with the following best-case Bubble scenario:

ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Big East (9): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (4): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida

Atlantic 10 (5): Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, Rhode Island

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Pac-10 (1): California

Conference USA (1): UTEP

Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams, and that Cal, UTEP, and Utah State all win auto bids. If these assumptions don't pan out, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, San Diego State, and Florida will be sweating it.

UPDATE: The math above has been edited. We erroneously calculated the "worst case scenario" as leaving 7 at-large bids for the Bubble teams. In fact, the worst-case scenario would leave just 6 at-large bids.

UPDATE 2: The original math was correct, and we have re-edited. Apologies for the yo-yo.

What he said

Srinivas on Georgetown:

Georgetown in many was has been as much of an enigma this year as Louisville and Cincinnati, but their ceiling is so much higher than either of those teams. When Chris Wright, Greg Monroe, and Austin Freeman are cutting and passing,it's a beautiful thing to see.

This has been my sense as well, though perhaps I'm biased as the two Georgetown games I watched most closely this year were the wins over Duke and Villanova. But they proved again how high their ceiling is with a 7-point win over their rivals today. Incidentally, that Syracuse has been so highly-ranked this year proves something else Srinivas noted last night:

It's obvious this season was a down one throughout college basketball.

Auto Bid Alert: BUTLER, OAKLAND, NORTH TEXAS

It was a bittersweet Tuesday night for our Final Four host city.

In the sweet column, Indianapolis' Butler Bulldogs are back in the Tournament after beating Wright State in the Horizon League championship game for the second straight year. The Bulldogs, who haven't lost since December, capped a perfect league season. Expectations have been high for Butler all season long, as they returned their entire starting lineup from last year's squad. After a disappointing first-round loss to LSU, they'll be hoping to get back to the Sweet 16 and maybe even dreaming of playing in the Final Four just down the road from their own little gym. They'll probably be trying to do that as a 5 or 6 seed.

On the bitter side, IUPUI (for those without their scorecards, that's Indiana University-Purdue University of Indanapolis; yes, you read that correctly) lost to Oakland (for the same folks, that's Oakland from Rochester ... and that's the Rochester in Michigan) in the Summit League championship game. The Golden Grizzlies have a surprisingly high top 60 RPI for a team that had a pretty mediocre non-conference season before storming through one of the weaker D1 leagues. I wouldn't expect much from this team, but it's March, so expectations are irrelevant.

Finally, North Texas pulled a mild upset over Troy in the Sun Belt championship to book their place in the Tournament. A clutch jumper from junior guard Josh White with 22 seconds left in the game did the deed. While North Texas is unlikely to be hoisting a national championship trophy on the first Monday in April, they may best the rest of the field in at least one area -- the awesomeness of their nickname. Good luck to the MEAN GREEN.

The State of the Bubble Nation

The regular season has ended, and the power conferences are about to tip off their postseason tournaments. Which means that it's time for us to examine the State of the Bubble Nation. It's time to take a look at who's leaning in, who's leaning out, and who's right on the fence.

Major auto bid developments last night have clarified the picture a bit. St. Mary's' thumping of Gonzaga -- its first win over the Zags in six tries over the past two seasons -- has ensured that they won't be sweating out another Selection Sunday. They are off the Bubble and into the tourney. Meanwhile, auto bids for Siena and Old Dominion means these strong mid-major teams won't be competing for at-large spots.

So where does that leave us?

The Locks

The following teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference):

ACC (3): Duke, Maryland, Clemson

Big East (5): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown

Big Ten (4): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State

SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, BYU

Horizon (1): Butler

The Bubble

That's 27 locks. There are 34 at-large bids. But let's assume, for the sake of this exercise, that each of the above conference tournaments is won by one of the locks listed above. With this assumption, of the 27 teams above, 8 will win automatic bids through conference tournaments, and 19 will win at-large bids. That leaves 15 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 15 bids? I've identified 31 bubble teams, listed below by conference.

In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, and number of losses to teams outside the top 100 of the RPI.

ACC (4):

• Wake Forest (RPI 33, SOS 31, 6-5 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - With a huge win over Clemson on Sunday, the Demon Deacons stemmed the bleeding of a four-game losing streak that was threatening their Tourney hopes. Given their otherwise strong resume, that should be enough to have them breathing easy come Selection Sunday. Strong lean IN.
  
  
• Florida State (RPI 35, SOS 46, 4-6 vs. top 50, 1 100+ loss) - The Seminoles don't have much in the way of marquee wins, but they sport a high RPI, a quartet of top 50 wins, and a nice non-con win against fellow Bubble dweller Marquette. Lean IN.



• Georgia Tech (RPI 44, SOS 19, 4-7 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - The Yellow Jackets have stumbled a bit down the stretch, taking a big loss to Virginia Tech at home on Saturday. Still, they've got more top 50 wins than most of the teams on this list, including a big one over Duke. An ACC tourney first round win over UNC should have them breathing fairly easy. Lean IN.



• Virginia Tech (RPI 50, SOS 130, 3-4 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - That weak SOS really stands out and puts a damper on an otherwise stellar 23-7 overall record. They'll be eyeing an ACC tourney quarterfinal win over Wake to bolster their case, but in a weak Bubble field, it's a decent one as is. Lean IN.

Big East (7):

• Louisville (RPI 31, SOS 4, 2-6 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - I'm being a bit uncharitable by leaving the Cardinals on the Bubble after they completed a season sweep of Syracuse on Saturday and vaulted themselves into the top 30 of the RPI. Though they have an otherwise mediocre record against the Top 50, they've been strong down the stretch with wins over Notre Dame and UConn to go with the sweep of the Orangemen. It's highly unlikely that the Cards will miss out, but (a) I tend not to consider a team a lock at this point unless they've got an RPI in the 20s, and (b) if the Cards lose on Tuesday and a slew of auto bids get stolen by mediocre teams, it's possible. Strong lean IN.
  
  
• Seton Hall (RPI 54, SOS 30, 3-8 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. 100+) - The Pirates have put together a nice resume under the radar. No bad losses, some decent wins, and 6 wins over their final 8 games. It's not too spectacular, but it may just be solid enough. If they can pick up a couple wins in the Big East tourney, including one over Notre Dame in the second round, they'll be back to the Dance for the first time in a long time. Even Odds.



• UConn (RPI 55, SOS 3, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Everyone is down on the Huskies because of their 7-11 conference record and 3 straight losses to close the regular season, but I'm not convinced they're out of the picture. They've got three really quality wins against Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas. And their middling overall record was compiled over the course of the third toughest schedule in the country. They've got some work to do this week, but they're absolutely in the running. Even Odds.



• Notre Dame (RPI 58, SOS 50, 3-3 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Irish are shooting their way up the Bubble board with four wins over Pitt, Georgetown, UConn, and Marquette to close the season. A Big East tourney second round win against Seton Hall should send them Dancing for sure, but even with a loss there, they've got a reasonable shot. Even Odds.



• Marquette (RPI 59, SOS 51, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Losing to Notre Dame on Saturday really hurt, but they'd won 9 of 10 heading into that game. A potential Bubble showdown against UConn in the Big East tourney second round looms large. Even Odds.



• South Florida (RPI 64, SOS 54, 3-4 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - A big win over UConn on Saturday keeps them in the picture. They've also got wins over Pitt, Georgetown, and Seton Hall. Two wins in the Big East tourney could be enough to see them through, depending on what happens elsewhere. Even Odds.



• Cincinnati (RPI 68, SOS 9, 2-9 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. 100+) - I'm leaving the Bearcats on for now, only because it's possible that a run to the Big East championship game could force some discussion by the selection committee. But barring that, they're NIT-bound. Strong lean OUT.

Big Ten (1):

• Illinois (RPI 75, SOS 41, 4-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Losing to Wisconsin at home on Sunday hurt real bad. That RPI in the 70s is ugly. Still, they've got a fistful of high-quality wins against RPI top 25 teams (Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin), which puts them in rarified air as far as the Bubble goes. They'll need to avenge their loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney first round to go Dancing. Even Odds.

Big 12 (1):

• Missouri (RPI 39, SOS 40, 4-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Though their RPI continues to slip, the Tigers have a very solid resume. Among their 4 top 50 wins is a defeat of Kansas State. I think they're in even with a loss to Nebraska in the Big 12 tourney first round, depending on what happens elsewhere. Lean IN.

SEC (3):

• Florida (RPI 52, SOS 32, 3-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - They fell short in their bid to seal the deal at Kentucky on Sunday -- their third straight loss to close the season. If they can't beat Alabama in the SEC tourney first round, they'll be sweating bullets. Even Odds.
  


• Ole Miss (RPI 56, SOS 74, 2-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - The Rebels have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, but their biggest problem is that they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Three straight losses to Vandy, Florida, and Missisippi State in mid-February may have sunk their season. They've closed it out with four wins (against middling opposition), but will probably need a second round win over Tennessee to get through. Lean OUT.



• Mississippi State (RPI 69, SOS 106, 1-4 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. 100+) - See Cincinnati above. Strong lean OUT.

Mountain West (2):

• San Diego State (RPI 36, SOS 71, 2-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - A shiny top 35 RPI and a big win against New Mexico. Not much else to go with that, but if they beat Colorado State on Thursday, that may be enough. Even Odds.
  
  
• UNLV (RPI 47, SOS 104, 4-4 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Runnin' Rebs have an RPI top 50 record as good as almost anyone on this list, and included in that is a highly impressive win at The Pit. Taking care of business against Utah in the MWC tourney quarters should see them through. Lean IN.

Atlantic-10 (3):

• Rhode Island (RPI 39, SOS 76, 1-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Rams killed themselves last week with two bad losses against St. Bonaventure and UMass. It's a nice-looking RPI, but with just one top 50 win, it may not be enough. A couple wins in the A-10 tourney to prove their late-season mettle may be necessary. Even Odds.



• Dayton (RPI 51, SOS 34, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Flyers sport a few nice wins, including a 25-point drubbing of in-state rival Xavier. They've also challenged themselves with decent showings against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico. Even Odds.



• Charlotte (RPI 66, SOS 77, 3-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - It's a decent resume on its face, but it hides the fact that the 49ers have gone into a tailspin down the stretch, losing 6 of their last 7, including those 2 bad losses. They can get back into the picture with an A-10 tourney run, but short of that, and they're likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.

West Coast (1):

• Gonzaga (RPI 37, SOS 111, 4-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Yes, this is the resume of a bubble team. Their best wins are against Wisconsin, St. Mary's (twice), and Memphis. Sure, they're likely to get in, but it annoys me that their reputation seems to drown out rational consideration of their body of work. Lean IN.

Pac-10 (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• California (RPI 19, SOS 12, 1-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - As down as the Pac-10 is, it's gonna be real tough to keep out their regular season champs when they've got a top 20 RPI. Lean IN.
  


• Washington (RPI 49, SOS 61, 2-2 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. 100+) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.



• Arizona State (RPI 53, SOS 72, 2-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Sun Devils also have a decent non-con win (against San Diego State), but it'll do even less for them than it does for Washington. Lean OUT.

Conference USA (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):

• UAB (RPI 40, SOS 94, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - The pattern of early season success followed by a late season season will be no surprise to those familiar with Mike Davis' history. Just one top 50 win and a pair of sweeps down the stretch by conference foes UTEP and Memphis means the Blazers are likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.



• UTEP (RPI 42, SOS 117, 3-1 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - What you do see here is the nice record against top 50 teams. What you don't see here is the even nicer 14-game winning streak to close the season. Lean IN.



• Memphis (RPI 46, SOS 79, 2-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - Outside a sweep of UAB, the Tigers don't have much to show for themselves. They may need a win over the Blazers or Miners in the CUSA tournament to feel comfortable. Lean OUT.

Missouri Valley (1):

• Wichita State (RPI 45, SOS 101, 1-3 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Shockers really needed a Bracket Buster win at Utah State, but didn't get it. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. Lean OUT.

WAC (1):

• Utah State (RPI 32, SOS 103, 2-1 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.

MAC (1):

• Kent State (RPI 43, SOS 92, 1-2 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - A win over UAB isn't a heckuva lot to brag about. KSU will have to win their conference tourney, or they're likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.

The Bottom Line

The "lean in" teams above take 10 of the 15 remaining at-large bids. But two of those - Cal and UTEP - are the conference leaders in conferences that don't have any at-large locks. So let's assume that they'll win their conference tournaments, which means the "lean in" teams take 8 of the 15 remaining at-large bids. That leaves 7 bids, with the following 11 teams best-positioned (for now) to snatch them up - Seton Hall, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, South Florida, Illinois, Florida, San Diego State, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Utah State (if they don't win their conference championship). If I had to pick right now, I'd take Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette, Illinois, Florida, Dayton, and San Diego State - but I'm throwing darts to a considerable extent.

My final count by confrence, as of this afternoon, is as follows:

ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

Big East (9): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette

Big Ten (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri

SEC (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida

Atlantic 10 (4): Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Horizon (1): Butler

Pac-10 (1): California

Conference USA (1): UTEP

Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams. If that doesn't happen, the number of at-large bids in play will shrink, and some of these teams will be squeezed off the Bubble. Lots to be decided.

Auto Bid Alert: NORTHERN IOWA! SIENA! OLD DOMINION! ST. MARY'S! . . . WOFFORD?

If dreams came true, oh, wouldn't that be nice,
But this ain't no dream we're living through tonight,
You want it, you take it, you pay the price.

Sometimes you just have to Prove It on the floor.

Five auto bids settled in the last two days, and four of them grabbed by mid-major powerhouses who had a shot at an at-large bid, but refused to let the Selection Committee dash their March dreams.

Oh, and also Wofford.

Northern Iowa - The Panthers are more than a collection of great names (Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Ali Farokmanesh, and Adam Koch (pronounced "Cook," naturally)). They are a team that strangles their opponents with one of the slowest tempos in Division I. And that's just what they did to Wichita State on Sunday, winning 67-52 in a 59-possession game. The win sends the Panthers to their second straight Dance, but this time, with an RPI of 18, they should pull a better seed than the 12 they got last year. As Pat Forde says, no power conference team will want to see this Tourney-tested, gritty squad staring them down come Sunday.

Siena - The Saints are back. Siena will get a chance to return to the second round of the NCAA tournament for the third straight year. They didn't make it easy on themselves, falling behind by 15 points before reallying to beat Fairfield in overtime. If we're lucky, Siena will give us a first round game half as exciting as last year's double-overtime thriller against Ohio State:

And if we're even luckier, Bill Raftery will be calling the game. Onions!

Old Dominion - The Monarchs of Old Dominion punched their ticket with a smashing defeat of the College of William & Mary (hey, they don't call it the Colonial Athletic Association for nothing). ODU survived a wild game against VCU in the semis to get to the championship game, which was much smoother sailing. Making their third tourney trip in the last six years, the Monarchs aren't likely to settle for just being there. In the past few years, George Mason and VCU have proven that CAA teams shouldn't be taken lightly in the tournament, and you can bet that whoever matches up with ODU isn't likely to make that mistake.

St. Mary's - After a devastating late-season injury to star Patty Mills left the Gaels vulnerable to the cold shoulder of the Selection Committee last March, they decided they weren't going to leave anything to chance. With a resume that looked eerily similar to last year's, St. Mary's was in danger of yet another heartbreaking Selection Sunday. To say that they "got over the hump" with their thorough pasting of Gonzaga last night is a massive understatement. The Zags have tormented St. Mary's with five straight wins in the past two seasons; if any one of those games had turned out differently, the Gaels might be looking at two straight at-large bids. But behind 26 points from Mickey McConnell and 20 points from former Hoosier Ben Allen, St. Mary's not only threw the monkey off its back, but tossed the monkey around the gym like a rag doll. After the bad luck and near miss last year, you have to be happy for the Gaels, even if it means that we'll be deprived of this kind of internecine ESPN squabbling:

(For what it's worth -- and I'm as shocked about what I'm about to say as you are -- I side with Vitale on this issue, though the specific arguments he offers are not the best. Bilas' arrogant, myopic, sterile, and pointlessly Darwinist approach to tournament selection is the worst thing about him. It's a good reminder that he did go to Duke, after all.)

Wofford - Who are they? What are they doing here? With their mid-major big brothers stealing the show over the last couple days, it'd be easy to miss the fact that Wofford is going Dancing for the first time in school history. Despite their relative obscurity, the small school from Spartanburg, South Carolina is no slouch. They challenged themselves this year with five non-conference games against BCS schools, picking up wins against Georgia and South Carolina, while losing to Illinois, Pitt, and Michigan State. They may be the Admiral James Stockdale of this group, but the Terriers, who have won 19 of their last 20 games, are not likely to be intimidated by the 3 or 4 seed they will face next week.

Auto Bid Alert: WINTHROP and MURRAY STATE

Two more bids snatched up yesterday.

First, Murray State picked up the last auto bid up for grabs yesterday, pulling away at the end of a tight defensive battle against Morehead State in OVC championship game. This team is a genuine Cinderella threat. They've won 30 games, they play really good defense, and they sport a fairly balanced offense. With an RPI of 62, I'd guess they'll end up with at least a 13 seed, and depending on the matchup, they could be this year's Cleveland State.

Second, Winthrop reasserted its recent dominance over the Big South by going on the road and defeating the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. (What is a Chanticleer, you ask? CCU thought you would.) After a one year hiatus, Winthrop returns to the Tournament for the 5th time in 6 years. An 11th-seeded squad pulled a first round "upset" three years ago against Notre Dame (in quotes, because in truth, it was an entirely unsurprising result). It'll be a tougher task this time around. With an RPI of 178, the Eagles are going to have trouble getting much farther than the 15 seed line.

Incidentally, Coastal Carolina is coached by ex-Auburn and ex-Clemson coach Cliff Ellis. Though he was denied a trip to the Dance this year, Ellis has a storied connection to March Madness. He was the coach of the Clemson team that was on the wrong end of one of the more dramatic buzzer beaters in Tournament history:

That's poor Cliff looking glumly down court at about 2:12. But just a few seconds later, you get an even better reaction shot of Elden Campbell, certainly one of the most iconic "what the hell just happened?" reactions to a buzzer beater in Tournament history.

The Chase for the Top Line

I don't know how they did it, but Kansas State just managed to lose to Iowa State (yes, that's "3-13 in the Big 12" Iowa State) ... on their own home floor. This craptacular result solidifies Duke's hold on the fourth 1 seed. For now, anyway. In about 10 minutes, the Blue Devils will have their own chance to cough up a spot on the top line.

Auto Bid Alert: EAST TENNESSEE STATE

Last year, an underseeded East Tennessee State team very nearly became the first 16 seed to defeat a 1 seed in the Tournament. This year, returning just one starter, and featuring five underclassmen in their starting lineup, few expected that they'd get another shot at that feat. But the Bucs are back.

ETSU was seeded 5th in the Atlantic Sun conference tourney, but because of upsets elsewhere in the bracket, they only had to defeat the 4th, 8th, and 6th seeded teams to go Dancing. They just finished it off today with a 72-66 win over Mercer. With an RPI of 125, they've got a shot at a 15 seed, but a second straight chance to make history as a 16 is a reasonable bet.

Orange Crushed

Not a bad way to close the doors.

In the last-ever game at the historic Freedom Hall, before a jubilant throng that included such legends as "Never Nervous" Pervis Ellison, Louisville just finished spanking the (soon-not-to-be) number one team in the country by 14 points. On an afternoon full of pomp and emotion, it was the improbable performance of unheralded sophomore Kyle Kuric, who scored 22 points in 18 minutes, that stole the show. The win means that when they turn out the lights at Freedom Hall, they'll get to keep the celebration going all the way to the Big Dance.