Bizarro Symmetry

The largest victory margin in a championship game since (UNC rival) Duke beat (Michigan State rival) Michigan by 20 in 1992.

Man, I hate the ACC.

UPDATE: Since that '92 Duke-Michigan game, the ACC is 5-0 against the Big Ten in title games.

1992 - Duke over Michigan
1993 - UNC over Michigan
2002 - Maryland over Indiana
2005 - UNC over Illinois
2009 - UNC over Michigan State

Indiana's win over UNC in 1981 is the only other title game featuring the two conferences.

Get a brain!

Allow me to take advantage of the under-4 timeout to comment on the stupidity of Bill Self winning two Coach of the Year awards, first the AP and then CBS/Chevrolet's. (As if anything that an American car company puts its name on isn't discredited enough.) I'll say it again:

It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.

Self isn't even the Big 12 Coach of the Year, much less the national COY. Roy Williams benefitted from this myopia in 2006, the idiocy that rewards a coach not for actual coaching, but for how much talent he has after he wins a national championship. It's nuts and makes me wonder if the people who decide these things can focus on more than 3 or 4 schools for a two-year stretch at a time.

So Why are They Here?

Apologies for lack of coverage leading to the Final Four, but I was in turmoil over Calipari. My spirits have been conditionally lifted by the hiring of his ace recruiter and assistant Josh Pastner, who will inevitably leave for Arizona one day, but hey it's the best option now. 

Alright, so I'm just going to give a quick take on what I think got the title contenders to tonight's game, and I'll hazard a prediction, which may be the thing I'm worst at. 

Michigan State

Why are they here? Travis Walton and Kalin Lucas, no question. I have to give a standing ovation to the two defensive gems in a row that MSU turned in against Louisville and UConn. Louisville's 4-deep backcourt rotation could not provide their usual injection of energy and points against Walton and Lucas, along with MSU's own deep guard rotation. Walton's powers of defensive disruption also got to Terrence Williams.  Of course, shutting down a team like Louisville takes all 5 on the floor, and MSU worked together beautifully to deny Louisville passing and driving lanes. The defensive effort got Lousiville, not the most mentally solid team, stuck in a rut they couldn't escape. 

Walton and Lucas performed even better against UConn. A.J. Price, the best player of weekend 1, was 5-20 and could not provide any heroics or game-changing shots to get UConn out of the doldrums.  MSU did a great job of closing off driving lanes, as more than once a Husky guard penetrated only to have to retreat to the perimeter. All that, and that Durrell Summers dunk was SICK. 

North Carolina

It's hard to say anything original about Carolina at this point, especially since Dana O'Neil captured it so well here.  Simply put, Carolina has so many levels of offensive backup, it's extremely difficult to shut them all down.  It took superhuman efforts by Tyrese Rice of BC, Greivis Vasquez of Maryland, and Toney Douglas of FSU and a masterpiece by Wake Forest to beat them this year. 

All that said, it's become glaringly obvious that Ty Lawson dwarfs Tyler Hansbrough in importance to Carolina's chances. Yes, Hansbrough "hustles" and "works hard" but it would mean zilch without Lawson running the show and initiating those devastating Tar Heel runs where he, Ellington, and Green bury you.  Lawson couldn't save UNC against Kansas (shudder) last year, but he might have been able to stem that tide with his new shooting touch. 

Prediction

Where does that leave us? I think it's safe to say that many fans (myself included) want MSU to turn Hockeytown into Hoops Heaven tonight. But I can't get over the fact that as good as A.J. Price was in the first 2 rounds, Lawson has outshone him since. It's helped that Ellington has finally turned it on so he can follow his PG's lead when Lawson decides it's time to inflict death by a thousand daggers.  It will be a hell of a matchup to see Lawson go against a backcourt that is very capable of taking him off his game. I just don't see Carolina falling flat on so many fronts that they lose this game, unfortunately. MSU will slow them down, but Carolina will inevitably make a serious run. Carolina's defense has improved to the point that they will be able to beat back an MSU rally, if barely. Hansbrough, Davis, and Zeller can keep up with MSU x-factor Suton on the perimeter and Carolina's overall size will be able to frustrate him inside. 

I won't rule out the possibility that MSU will turn in a third straight masterful performance, and I definitely think they can beat Carolina, but I think Lawson's poise and skill carry the night. 

UNC 78 MSU 71

It's been a fun ride. Enjoy.

Sobering, not Surprising

Your March bloggers are now in somewhat similar situations. Shankar's heart belongs to Indiana, and mine to Memphis. Now that John Calipari is heading to Kentucky, we have a decimated roster, a frantic coaching search, and a distraught fan base wondering (more so than fans would at IU, which has tradition independent of Bobby Knight and is in the Big Ten) how much there is a Memphis without a Calipari. Memphis has tradition, but there's a deep insecurity in the city that was unfortunately assuaged by returning to college basketball glory, and in unprecedented fashion, with the pattern for perennial outsized success firmly laid. 

Calipari could have made his own Kentucky at Memphis, but he went to the one that was already there. That's really all I can say. 

A long night in Memphis and Lexington

Rumors swirling today about whether John Calipari will leave Memphis to take the head job at Kentucky. Despite all the "reports" (many of which are just reporting other reports), this does not appear to be a done deal. For what it's worth, the most recent chatter is that Memphis boosters are trying to put together a last-minute package that will keep Calipari in Memphis.

I have been saying all day long that until it is officially announced by Kentucky, I will continue to believe that this is an effort by Calipari to re-negotiate a huge deal in Memphis. Srinivas can speak to this better than I can, but if that's the case, it would not be the first time for Calipari.

I don't have much to add to this, but I will say that based on my casual surfing, I think that people are understimating the appeal of the Memphis job, both in the abstract and in Calipari's case, specifically. I don't think folks understand the importance of the Memphis basketball team to the city of Memphis, and the resources that the university is willing to commit to the program. After all, Calipari is already the second highest-paid coach in the country, and unlike the highest-paid coach (Billy Donovan), the magnitude of his salary isn't just a function of the largesse generated by a dominant football team.

In any event, it appears we'll find out tomorrow. In the meantime, there are a lot of folks in Kentucky and Memphis who aren't going to sleep well tonight.

Grab some popcorn

Billy Gillispie is out at UK. Kick back, put your feet up, and head over to Rupp Rafters to revel in the chaos.

UPDATE: A TV station in Orlando is reporting that Billy Donovan will be leaving Florida to take the UK job. That'll satisfy Kentucky's insane fan base, but I'm not sweating Billy D at all.

UPDATE 2: Donovan is pushing back on the rumors a bit, releasing a statement that says, "In response to the rumors circulating about my interest in other jobs, I wanted to address this as quickly as possible. I am committed to the University of Florida and look forward to continuing to build our program here." That strikes me as a non-denial denial.

Thursday Recap

Four games, four notes:

1. Boy, was Pitt lucky to win tonight. A disjointed, sloppy, and sluggish effort from the Panthers. From Dejuan Blair's poor finishing to Sam Young's comically bad shot selection to the entire team's defensive disorganization, it was not a pretty sight. Even Levance Fields' climactic three-pointer was one of those "no no no no no no yes!" plays. Jamie Dixon will be thanking his lucky stars that Xavier struggled to finish around the rim and shot surprisingly poorly tonight.
   


2. We said yesterday that the key factors in the Nova-Duke game would be the Wildcats' guards keeping their composure against Duke's ball pressure defense, and Duke's three-point shooting. Well Villanova turned it over on just 16% of its possessions (Duke typically forces turnovers on about 23% of possessions), and Duke shot an abominable 5-for-27 from beyond the arc. End result: 23-point Villanova blowout and much rejoicing throughout the land.


3. I didn't see the Memphis-Missouri game, but every replay that CBS showed me seemed to involve JT Tiller scoring on a layup off of a curl cut into the lane. Easy, peasy, japeneezy. So much for Memphis' vaunted defense, which allowed a remarkable 1.25 points per possession. Missouri will be looking to make its first Final Four on Saturday, but perhaps the more important battle for them will be finding a way to keep Mike Anderson in Columbia after the season is over. As for the inevitable speculation of Calipari to Kentucky, I can't see either party to that potential transaction being particularly interested in it, for a variety of reasons. Sorry, delusional UK fans, it looks it'll be Travis Ford for you. That's what you get for running one of the game's best coaches out of town.


4. I also missed the UConn-Purdue game, but as we suggested yesterday, without a hot shooting night, Purdue wasn't going to win this game. And 6-for-23 from 3 is absolutely frigid. The Boilers could never get the offense going this year, and despite returning much of their top talent next year, if they don't find a way to score, it's going to be a similar story.
   

UPDATE: Just to balance out the less than unbiased appraisal of Memphis' season below, I don't think they did anything that anyone shouldn't have expected in preseason. They may have been underrated by the polls at the time, but a so-so non-conference performance, a sweep through the anemic CUSA, and a sweet 16 exit are not terribly surprising results for this team. This year's award for overachieving goes to the Tigers who won tonight's game. It's a travesty that Bill Self gets more praise for Kansas' season than Mike Anderson does for Missouri's. Everyone wants to know how Self did it after losing so many players from a national championship team. Well he did it with two returning McDonald's All-Americans, 5 top 100 freshmen recruits, and the best JUCO transfer in the country, that's how he did it. Mike Anderson, on the other hand, has stitched together a 25-6 season, a Big 12 tournament championship, and an Elite Eight appearance out of a few popsicle sticks, some pipe cleaners, and a jar of paste. Put that in your expectations pipe and smoke it.