Midwest Region: First Round Preview

A quick preview of first round games in the top-heavy Midwest region, with my picks marked with an asterisk. I don't see a serious threat of any major upsets, but the middle seed games are tough to call.

1-Kansas*
16-Lehigh

Shouldn't be close.

8-UNLV*
9-Northern Iowa

Both teams take a lot of 3s, and both teams allow a lot of 3s to be taken, so the game could be decided from beyond the arc in what is likely to be a low-possession contest. Who is likelier to hit their shots. UNLV has been a better 3-point shooting team later in the season and on the road, so I'll take the Runnin' Rebs.

5-Michigan State*
12-New Mexico State

MSU may win based on rebounding domination alone, but they need to be wary of NMSU's 3-point shooting. The Spartans tend to give up a lot of points from behind the arc, and the Aggies love to Run and Gun.

4-Maryland*
13-Houston

If Maryland takes reasonably good care of the ball against Houston's uptempo, turnover-generating defense, they should be fine. In other words, more like the home win over Clemson than the road loss. The terrible first half against Georgia Tech notwithstanding, the Terps have been pretty good down the stretch.

6-Tennessee*
11-San Diego State

I'm expecting a somewhat wild, perhaps ugly, game. Tennessee likes to put opponents on the free throw line, and San Diego State likes to shoot about 60% from there. Tennessee likes to generate turnovers, and San Diego State likes to commit them. On the other hand, SDSU likes to give up 3s, and Tennessee likes to miss them. SDSU likes to rebound hard on the offensive glass, and Tennessee likes to let their opponents do that. It's hard to see whose deficienices will carry the day, but in a close game, a team that doesn't take care of the ball or shoot well from the line may be in trouble. I hate to say it, but I think the Ugly Naked Guy could be headed for the second round.

3-Georgetown*
14-Ohio

The Hoyas are playing well, and Ohio is not a great team.

7-Oklahoma State
10-Georgia Tech*

I'd just like to point out that Georgia Tech has a guy named Brian Oliver (no relation to the former Yellow Jacket) and Glen Rice (son of the former Michigan star). That's pretty awesome. As for the game itself, which pits a disappointing underachiever against an impressive overachiever, it's another one that's hard to call. The Cowboys could have trouble controlling Tech's size, and Tech could have trouble controlling the ball. I'll go with Georgia Tech, though as with the 6-11 game, I'll be rooting for the team I didn't pick.

2-Ohio State
15-UC-Santa Barbara

The Buckeyes have been great since Evan Turner's return.