South Region: First Round Preview

We're just a few hours from tip in Providence and elsewhere. Here's my last regional preview.

1-Duke*
16-Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Okay, I'll say it: This is a good Duke team, and I think they're Final Four bound. (Now let's see if this jinx works.)

8-California
9-Louisville*

I'm not that high on Louisville, and this is a good matchup for Cal, but I'm picking the Cards on principle. I hope they teach the Selection Committee a thing or two. Either way, I think Duke is headed to the Sweet 16. (That should do it.)

5-Texas A&M
12-Utah State*

An Agricultural War descends on Spokane as the Aggies of Texas take on the Aggies of Utah. This is another 5-12 matchup that is a much closer call than the seeding suggests. In the past 5 years, I've twice put my faith in Utah State to pull an upset from a double-digit seed. They came agonizingly close last year, but haven't gotten over the hump. On the flip side, it's been two years in a row that A&M has confounded me by defeating an offensively-efficient team from Utah in the Tournament's first round (BYU twice, for those keeping score). Third time's the charm? An experienced senior point guard, a potent inside-outside attack, a venue not too far from home, and a matchup with another team that prefers a slower pace may be enough to get Utah's Aggies over the hump. At the end of the day, I'm picking with my heart on this one.

4-Purdue*
13-Siena

Yes, Purdue is without Robbie Hummel and just got pasted by Minnesota by 27 points. Yes, Siena has won first round tournament games two years in a row. No, that does not mean you can chalk this up as an upset. The key to the Boilers' post-Hummel offense is Jajuan Johnson. In the two games they've lost in the last few weeks, his relatively low FG% has stood out. It's not clear that the Saints match up well against him. An upset wouldn't be a surprise, but this is not necessarily the sure pick that many seem to think it is.

3-Baylor*
14-Sam Houston State

Baylor is playing some pretty good basketball. Their ball-handling and defensive rebounding leave a bit to be desired, but Sam Houston State is not likely to exploit these weaknesses.

6-Notre Dame*
11-Old Dominion

An upset here would be no surprise, but it's tough to pick against the Irish the way they've been playing of late. For once, Mike Brey seems to have figured things out defensively. The Irish will have to contain ODU's inside game and control their own glass.

7-Richmond*
10-St. Mary's

This might be the most intriguing matchup of the first round, and the March will be there live and in person. Richmond's methodical Princeton offense versus St. Mary's high-powered inside-out attack. Both teams like to shoot the 3, and both defend the 3 well. If someone can get the upper hand from beyond the arc, they could be in the driver's seat, but if not, it may come down to rebounding, turnovers, and which team is more successful scoring underneath (Richmond with its cutting and passing, or St. Mary's with Samhan in the post). It's a pick 'em. I'll go with the team that has the shorter travel distance and the mascot more likely to frighten small children.

2-Villanova*
15-Robert Morris

I don't think Nova deserved a 2 seed, but here they are, facing an overmatched Robert Morris team.