The Bubble is starting to crash. After yesterday’s orgy of action, much of the speculation has ended, and reality is starting to set in.I can now say that even in the worst-case scenario, the following teams will make the Tournament: Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Missouri, and UNLV.
Some of those teams earned their lock status by going out and grabbing it, with Georgia Tech posting a huge win over Maryland and UNLV getting an equally big victory over BYU. The rest backed in, as Florida State joined Wake, Louisville, and Missouri with less than impressive performances in their first conference tournament game. Still, I have taken a close look at the math, and cannot see these teams being left out under any scenario (assuming a minimum number of bids for the Bubble, assuming that other Bubble teams perform as well as possible).
How about the rest of the Bubble? San Diego State, Illinois, and Minnesota (whom I had foolishly left off the Bubble) posted big upset wins. Cal, Washington, and Rhode Island took care of business against lesser teams. Ole Miss and Dayton failed to get the big wins they needed, and are now on the outside looking in. And Virginia Tech and Florida guaranteed themselves a nailbiting weekend by losing games they should’ve won.
Let's take a look at where we stand.
The Locks
I now have 35 locks:
The Bubble
There are 34 at-large bids. How many are left after the 35 locks? Well that depends on how many locks win auto bids. If all of the above 7 conference tournaments (excluding the already-played WCC tourney) are won by one of the above teams, the locks will take 28 bids, leaving 6. At the other extreme, if 5 of the above conference tourneys are won by non-locks (excluding the WCC, Big East, and Big 12, for which this cannot be true), the locks will take 33 bids, leaving just 1.
Who is positioned to pick up these 1-6 at-large bids left? We look at the bubble teams, listed by conference, below.
In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.
ACC (1):
- Virginia Tech (RPI 56, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Yesterday, we said the Hokies were in good position for a bid if they could avoid losing to Miami. So much for that. It'll be tough to leave out an ACC team with a 23-8 (10-7 conference) record, but the Hokies don't have an excuse for such a weak SOS. Wins over Clemson, Wake, and Georgia Tech in the past month may be enough to see them through, but Va Tech has made it tough on themselves. Even Odds.
Big East (3):
- Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - Cincy gave themselves a shot with narrow wins over Rutgers and Louisville, but fell short against West Virginia Thursday night. A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Lean OUT.
- Seton Hall (RPI 61, SOS 32, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Pirates needed to impress this week to put them over the top, and they didn't. After a mediocre performance against Providence in which they let the Friars come within a missed last-second 3-pointer of staging a 29-point comeback, the Hall went down to Notre Dame in the second round. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that may not be enough. Even Odds.
- South Florida (RPI 69, SOS 59, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 14-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) -The Bulls held out hope for collapses elsewhere on the Bubble. But with San Diego State, Illinois, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Washington all winning yesterday, that hope is over. OUT.
Big Ten (2):
- Illinois (RPI 72, SOS 39, 5-8 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Illini scored a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. That gives them 5 wins against top 35 teams, a feat unmatched by any other team on this list. Yes, they struggled down the stretch and yes the RPI is still rough, but things are starting to look up for Illinois. Lean IN.
- Minnesota (RPI 65, SOS 54, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Here come the Gophers. I foolishly kept them off the Bubble this week, but they have played their way onto it with a huge victory last night over Michigan State. They now have four top 25 wins. They’re still held back somewhat by the mediocre record outside the top 50. But at this point, they have as good a chance as anyone. A win over Purdue today could send them Dancing. Even Odds.
SEC (3):
- Florida (RPI 51, SOS 33, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With the loss to Mississippi State yesterday, the Gators should be sweating. Two of their three best wins were very early in the season, and none came on the road. They have a solid record against 51-100, but it may not be enough. Even Odds.
- Ole Miss (RPI 58, SOS 64, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Yesterday’s loss to Tennessee was the end of the line for Ole Miss. As I’ve noted, while they have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Lean OUT.
- Mississippi State (RPI 63, SOS 104, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 7-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Bulldogs kept their hopes alive with a win over Florida yesterday. Still, their only top 50 win came against Old Dominion in December, and all those bad losses take their toll. They’ll look to boost their stock even more with a win over Vanderbilt today. Even Odds.
Mountain West (2):
- San Diego State (RPI 24, SOS 57, 3-5 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - A great win for the Aztecs last night against New Mexico means they should be dancing. That strong RPI is now backed by three wins against top 50 teams and a strong record down the stretch. Lean IN.
Atlantic-10 (2):
- Rhode Island (RPI 38, SOS 87, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rams have taken care of business in the first two rounds of the A-10 tourney with wins over St. Joe's and St. Louis. But as I finalize this post, they are putting the finishing touches on a double-digit loss to Temple -- a game they very much needed to win. Without it, they're left with just one top 50 win in 6 tries and a tough record down the stretch. Despite the strong record against 51-100, that likely won't be enough. Lean OUT.
- Dayton (RPI 53, SOS 31, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Dayton blew a fairly big lead last night against Xavier, and with it, they may have blown their Tournament hopes. With a rough 3-6 record down the stretch and a thoroughly mediocre performance away from home, things aren’t looking good for the Flyers. Lean OUT.
Pac-10 (2) (Note: One of these teams will win an auto bid):
- California (RPI 19, SOS 15, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 18-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Bears took care of business to get to the Pac-10 championship game. Even if they lose it, with an RPI that high and a Pac-10 regular season championship in their pocket, it’s hard to see them being left out. Lean IN.
- Washington (RPI 48, SOS 69, 2-2 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, with a middling record against lower-rated teams, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.
Conference USA (2) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- UTEP (RPI 40, SOS 110, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
- UTEP just blew their hopes of an auto bid with a tentative performance against Houston down the stretch. Still, the Miners have a decent chance of getting an at-large bid (depending on how many are available). While they have no marquee wins, they have a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak that preceded today’s collapse. Lean IN. - Memphis (RPI 54, SOS 83, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 5-0 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Developments elsewhere send the Tigers to the NIT. They have a solid record against teams rated 51-100, but there are a handful of bad losses and their best wins are against NIT-bound UAB. OUT.
Missouri Valley (1):
- Wichita State (RPI 43, SOS 101, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 8-1 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12)- As with South Florida and Memphis, the Shockers slim hopes have been extinguished by other Bubble teams taking care of business. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. OUT.
WAC (1):
- Utah State (RPI 30, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, even with the season-closing 16-game (and counting) winning streak, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.
The Bottom Line
Let’s assume that Cal and Utah State win their conference tournaments and don’t need at-large bids. In the worst case scenario, there would be just one bid left, and it would likely go to Illinois or San Diego State. But in the best case scanrio, there would be 6 bids left. The “lean in” teams – Illinois, San Diego State, and UTEP – would take 3, leaving 3 bids with the following teams best-positioned to take them: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Florida, Missisippi State, and Washington.
If I had to pick now, I’d take Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, and Florida.
That leaves us with the following best-case Bubble scenario:
Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams, and that Cal and Utah State both win auto bids. If these assumptions don't pan out, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, and Florida will be sweating it even more. And even UTEP, Illinois, and San Diego State might start to fidget.
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