The regular season has ended, and the power conferences are about to tip off their postseason tournaments. Which means that it's time for us to examine the State of the Bubble Nation. It's time to take a look at who's leaning in, who's leaning out, and who's right on the fence.Major auto bid developments last night have clarified the picture a bit. St. Mary's' thumping of Gonzaga -- its first win over the Zags in six tries over the past two seasons -- has ensured that they won't be sweating out another Selection Sunday. They are off the Bubble and into the tourney. Meanwhile, auto bids for Siena and Old Dominion means these strong mid-major teams won't be competing for at-large spots.
So where does that leave us?
The Locks
The following teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments (listed by conference):The Bubble
That's 27 locks. There are 34 at-large bids. But let's assume, for the sake of this exercise, that each of the above conference tournaments is won by one of the locks listed above. With this assumption, of the 27 teams above, 8 will win automatic bids through conference tournaments, and 19 will win at-large bids. That leaves 15 at-large bids up for grabs. Who's in contention to grab these remaining 15 bids? I've identified 31 bubble teams, listed below by conference.
In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, and number of losses to teams outside the top 100 of the RPI.
ACC (4):
- Wake Forest (RPI 33, SOS 31, 6-5 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - With a huge win over Clemson on Sunday, the Demon Deacons stemmed the bleeding of a four-game losing streak that was threatening their Tourney hopes. Given their otherwise strong resume, that should be enough to have them breathing easy come Selection Sunday. Strong lean IN.
- Florida State (RPI 35, SOS 46, 4-6 vs. top 50, 1 100+ loss) - The Seminoles don't have much in the way of marquee wins, but they sport a high RPI, a quartet of top 50 wins, and a nice non-con win against fellow Bubble dweller Marquette. Lean IN.
- Georgia Tech (RPI 44, SOS 19, 4-7 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - The Yellow Jackets have stumbled a bit down the stretch, taking a big loss to Virginia Tech at home on Saturday. Still, they've got more top 50 wins than most of the teams on this list, including a big one over Duke. An ACC tourney first round win over UNC should have them breathing fairly easy. Lean IN.
- Virginia Tech (RPI 50, SOS 130, 3-4 vs. top 50, 2 100+ losses) - That weak SOS really stands out and puts a damper on an otherwise stellar 23-7 overall record. They'll be eyeing an ACC tourney quarterfinal win over Wake to bolster their case, but in a weak Bubble field, it's a decent one as is. Lean IN.
Big East (7):
- Louisville (RPI 31, SOS 4, 2-6 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - I'm being a bit uncharitable by leaving the Cardinals on the Bubble after they completed a season sweep of Syracuse on Saturday and vaulted themselves into the top 30 of the RPI. Though they have an otherwise mediocre record against the Top 50, they've been strong down the stretch with wins over Notre Dame and UConn to go with the sweep of the Orangemen. It's highly unlikely that the Cards will miss out, but (a) I tend not to consider a team a lock at this point unless they've got an RPI in the 20s, and (b) if the Cards lose on Tuesday and a slew of auto bids get stolen by mediocre teams, it's possible. Strong lean IN.
- Seton Hall (RPI 54, SOS 30, 3-8 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. 100+) - The Pirates have put together a nice resume under the radar. No bad losses, some decent wins, and 6 wins over their final 8 games. It's not too spectacular, but it may just be solid enough. If they can pick up a couple wins in the Big East tourney, including one over Notre Dame in the second round, they'll be back to the Dance for the first time in a long time. Even Odds.
- UConn (RPI 55, SOS 3, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Everyone is down on the Huskies because of their 7-11 conference record and 3 straight losses to close the regular season, but I'm not convinced they're out of the picture. They've got three really quality wins against Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas. And their middling overall record was compiled over the course of the third toughest schedule in the country. They've got some work to do this week, but they're absolutely in the running. Even Odds.
- Notre Dame (RPI 58, SOS 50, 3-3 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Irish are shooting their way up the Bubble board with four wins over Pitt, Georgetown, UConn, and Marquette to close the season. A Big East tourney second round win against Seton Hall should send them Dancing for sure, but even with a loss there, they've got a reasonable shot. Even Odds.
- Marquette (RPI 59, SOS 51, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Losing to Notre Dame on Saturday really hurt, but they'd won 9 of 10 heading into that game. A potential Bubble showdown against UConn in the Big East tourney second round looms large. Even Odds.
- South Florida (RPI 64, SOS 54, 3-4 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - A big win over UConn on Saturday keeps them in the picture. They've also got wins over Pitt, Georgetown, and Seton Hall. Two wins in the Big East tourney could be enough to see them through, depending on what happens elsewhere. Even Odds.
- Cincinnati (RPI 68, SOS 9, 2-9 vs. top 50, 0 losses vs. 100+) - I'm leaving the Bearcats on for now, only because it's possible that a run to the Big East championship game could force some discussion by the selection committee. But barring that, they're NIT-bound. Strong lean OUT.
- Illinois (RPI 75, SOS 41, 4-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Losing to Wisconsin at home on Sunday hurt real bad. That RPI in the 70s is ugly. Still, they've got a fistful of high-quality wins against RPI top 25 teams (Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin), which puts them in rarified air as far as the Bubble goes. They'll need to avenge their loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney first round to go Dancing. Even Odds.
Big 12 (1):
- Missouri (RPI 39, SOS 40, 4-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Though their RPI continues to slip, the Tigers have a very solid resume. Among their 4 top 50 wins is a defeat of Kansas State. I think they're in even with a loss to Nebraska in the Big 12 tourney first round, depending on what happens elsewhere. Lean IN.
- Florida (RPI 52, SOS 32, 3-8 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - They fell short in their bid to seal the deal at Kentucky on Sunday -- their third straight loss to close the season. If they can't beat Alabama in the SEC tourney first round, they'll be sweating bullets. Even Odds.
- Ole Miss (RPI 56, SOS 74, 2-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - The Rebels have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, but their biggest problem is that they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Three straight losses to Vandy, Florida, and Missisippi State in mid-February may have sunk their season. They've closed it out with four wins (against middling opposition), but will probably need a second round win over Tennessee to get through. Lean OUT.
- Mississippi State (RPI 69, SOS 106, 1-4 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. 100+) - See Cincinnati above. Strong lean OUT.
Mountain West (2):
- San Diego State (RPI 36, SOS 71, 2-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - A shiny top 35 RPI and a big win against New Mexico. Not much else to go with that, but if they beat Colorado State on Thursday, that may be enough. Even Odds.
- UNLV (RPI 47, SOS 104, 4-4 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Runnin' Rebs have an RPI top 50 record as good as almost anyone on this list, and included in that is a highly impressive win at The Pit. Taking care of business against Utah in the MWC tourney quarters should see them through. Lean IN.
Atlantic-10 (3):
- Rhode Island (RPI 39, SOS 76, 1-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Rams killed themselves last week with two bad losses against St. Bonaventure and UMass. It's a nice-looking RPI, but with just one top 50 win, it may not be enough. A couple wins in the A-10 tourney to prove their late-season mettle may be necessary. Even Odds.
- Dayton (RPI 51, SOS 34, 3-7 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Flyers sport a few nice wins, including a 25-point drubbing of in-state rival Xavier. They've also challenged themselves with decent showings against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico. Even Odds.
- Charlotte (RPI 66, SOS 77, 3-8 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - It's a decent resume on its face, but it hides the fact that the 49ers have gone into a tailspin down the stretch, losing 6 of their last 7, including those 2 bad losses. They can get back into the picture with an A-10 tourney run, but short of that, and they're likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.
West Coast (1):
- Gonzaga (RPI 37, SOS 111, 4-4 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - Yes, this is the resume of a bubble team. Their best wins are against Wisconsin, St. Mary's (twice), and Memphis. Sure, they're likely to get in, but it annoys me that their reputation seems to drown out rational consideration of their body of work. Lean IN.
Pac-10 (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- California (RPI 19, SOS 12, 1-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - As down as the Pac-10 is, it's gonna be real tough to keep out their regular season champs when they've got a top 20 RPI. Lean IN.
- Washington (RPI 49, SOS 61, 2-2 vs. top 50, 4 losses vs. 100+) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.
- Arizona State (RPI 53, SOS 72, 2-5 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Sun Devils also have a decent non-con win (against San Diego State), but it'll do even less for them than it does for Washington. Lean OUT.
Conference USA (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- UAB (RPI 40, SOS 94, 1-5 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - The pattern of early season success followed by a late season season will be no surprise to those familiar with Mike Davis' history. Just one top 50 win and a pair of sweeps down the stretch by conference foes UTEP and Memphis means the Blazers are likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.
- UTEP (RPI 42, SOS 117, 3-1 vs. top 50, 1 loss vs. 100+) - What you do see here is the nice record against top 50 teams. What you don't see here is the even nicer 14-game winning streak to close the season. Lean IN.
- Memphis (RPI 46, SOS 79, 2-5 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - Outside a sweep of UAB, the Tigers don't have much to show for themselves. They may need a win over the Blazers or Miners in the CUSA tournament to feel comfortable. Lean OUT.
- Wichita State (RPI 45, SOS 101, 1-3 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - The Shockers really needed a Bracket Buster win at Utah State, but didn't get it. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. Lean OUT.
WAC (1):
- Utah State (RPI 32, SOS 103, 2-1 vs. top 50, 2 losses vs. 100+) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.
MAC (1):
- Kent State (RPI 43, SOS 92, 1-2 vs. top 50, 3 losses vs. 100+) - A win over UAB isn't a heckuva lot to brag about. KSU will have to win their conference tourney, or they're likely NIT-bound. Lean OUT.
The Bottom Line
The "lean in" teams above take 10 of the 15 remaining at-large bids. But two of those - Cal and UTEP - are the conference leaders in conferences that don't have any at-large locks. So let's assume that they'll win their conference tournaments, which means the "lean in" teams take 8 of the 15 remaining at-large bids. That leaves 7 bids, with the following 11 teams best-positioned (for now) to snatch them up - Seton Hall, UConn, Notre Dame, Marquette, South Florida, Illinois, Florida, San Diego State, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Utah State (if they don't win their conference championship). If I had to pick right now, I'd take Seton Hall, Notre Dame, Marquette, Illinois, Florida, Dayton, and San Diego State - but I'm throwing darts to a considerable extent.
My final count by confrence, as of this afternoon, is as follows:
Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams. If that doesn't happen, the number of at-large bids in play will shrink, and some of these teams will be squeezed off the Bubble. Lots to be decided.
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