Um, guys? You're supposed to fight to get in the Tournament, not out.An already weak Bubble is getting weaker by the day, as the teams on the fence are doing their mightiest to tumble off the wrong side of it. Already precariously perched, UConn, Charlotte, Memphis, and UAB all lost games they were favored to win. Meanwhile, the three teams that I identified as "strong lean in" in Tuesday's update (Wake Forest, Louisville, Missouri) all suffered first-round defeats to inferior teams. Missouri and Wake Forest embarassed themselves in especially impressive fashion, posting double-digit losses to Nebraska and Miami, respectively. The only positive news has come out of Madison Square Garden, where Marquette and Notre Dame have played their way into the Dance, as they continued their fine late-season form.
The way this is all shaking out, if UTEP and Cal win their conference auto bids, it's going to be tough to find 34 teams worthy of an at-large selection. For that reason, a lot of teams that you'd think would be sure OUTs at this point are being labeled only as "Lean OUT" below. On the flip side, it's still possible that some mediocre teams not otherwise in contention for the Tournament will steal some bids and make the Bubble a bit more competitive.
Let's take a look at the math.
The Locks
After this week's early-round conference tourney action, three more teams are locks for at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments: Notre Dame, Marquette, and Gonzaga. That makes 29 locks, listed below by conference:
The Bubble
There are 34 at-large bids. How many are left after the 29 locks? Well that depends on how many locks win auto bids. If all of the above 7 conference tournaments (excluding the already-played WCC tourney) are won by one of the above teams, the locks will take 22 bids, leaving 12. At the other extreme, if 5 of the above conference tourneys are won by non-locks (excluding the Big East, Big 12, and WCC, for which this cannot be true), the locks will take 27 bids, leaving just 7.
Who is positioned to pick up these 7-12 at-large bids left? We look at the bubble teams, listed by conference, below. (I also explain below why Notre Dame, Marquette, and Gonzaga are now locks.)
In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.
ACC (4):
- Florida State (RPI 34, SOS 47, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 14-0 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - The Seminoles don't have much in the way of marquee wins, but they sport a high RPI, a quartet of top 50 wins, a solid top 100 record, no bad losses, and a nice non-con win against Marquette. A win over NC State today should sew up a bid, but even with a loss, FSU could be Dancing. Lean IN.
- Wake Forest (RPI 37, SOS 28, 6-4 vs. 1-50, 2-4 vs. 51-100, 11-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their terrible 19-point loss to Miami in the first round of the ACC tourney capped a rough end to their season, in which the Demon Deacons lost 4 of their last 5. That, coupled with a mediocre record against teams outside the top 50, has them in a potentially precarious position. With 6 top 50 wins, they are still likely to Dance, but they might be squeezed out if the number of available bids is closer to 8 than 15, and/or if some of the other teams on this list can put together strong conference tourney runs. Lean IN.
- Georgia Tech (RPI 40, SOS 20, 4-6 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 10-2 vs. 100+, 5-7 last 12) - The Yellow Jackets have stumbled a bit down the stretch, but they righted the ship a bit with a win over UNC yesterday. They've got more top 50 wins than most of the teams on this list, including a big one over Duke. A win over Maryland would cinch the deal, but they're likely in even with a loss. Lean IN.
- Virginia Tech (RPI 53, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-1 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - That weak SOS really stands out and puts a damper on an otherwise stellar 23-7 overall record. Still, with relatively recent wins against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and a strong overall record, the Hokies are reasonably positioned for a bid if they can avoid losing to Miami today. Lean IN.
Big East (7):
- Louisville (RPI 38, SOS 5, 3-7 vs. 1-50, 6-4 vs. 51-100, 11-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Lousiville's RPI continues to be volatile, just like their on-court performance. After the late-season win over Syracuse, the Cardinals were well-positioned for a bid, but an upset loss to Cincinnati in the Big East tourney first round didn't help. Though they've got just two wins on top 50 teams, teh fact that both were against highly-rated Syracuse should be enough to send them Dancing, depending on what happens elsewhere. Strong lean IN.
- Notre Dame (RPI 43, SOS 40, 5-3 vs. 1-50, 7-4 vs. 51-100, 11-3 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) -The Irish picked up a big win over Seton Hall in the second round of the Big East tourney, one that should seal their place in the Tournament. That's five straight wins over quality teams Pitt, Georgetown, UConn, and Marquette). Even in the worst case Bubble scenario, that's enough to get in. IN.
- Marquette (RPI 46, SOS 41, 4-8 vs. 1-50, 6-1 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12) - The loss to Notre Dame last weekend turned out to be a blip in a stretch during which Marquette has won 10 of 12, including two wins this week over St. John's and Villanova. As with Notre Dame, even under a worst case scenario, the Golden Eagles should be in. IN.
- Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - Cincy gave themselves a shot with narrow wins over Rutgers and Louisville, but fell short against West Virginia last night. A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Lean OUT.
- Seton Hall (RPI 60, SOS 31, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Pirates needed to impress this week to put them over the top, and they didn't. After a mediocre performance against Providence in which they let the Friars come within a missed last-second 3-pointer of staging a 29-point comeback, the Hall went down to Notre Dame in the second round. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that may not be enough. Even Odds.
- UConn (RPI 66, SOS 3, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 5-4 vs. 51-100, 8-2 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - I stuck up for UConn's chances on Tuesday, but there's no defending the Huskies now. Their lackadaisical approach to a must-win game against St. John's resulted in a loss that will send them to the NIT (if they accept the bid). It's disappointing to see one of my favorite college players, Jerome Dyson, go out this way.OUT.
- South Florida (RPI 69, SOS 57, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 14-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Bulls couldn't get the quality win over Georgetown that they needed. They'll need a lot of help -- no bid stealers, the rest of the Bubble collapsing, to have a shot. Strong lean OUT.
Big Ten (1):
- Illinois (RPI 77, SOS 42, 4-8 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Losing to Wisconsin at home on Sunday hurt real bad. That RPI in the 70s is ugly, as is a . Still, they've got a fistful of high-quality wins against RPI top 25 teams (Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin), which puts them in rarified air as far as the Bubble goes. They'll need to avenge their loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney first round. Even Odds.
Big 12 (1):
- Missouri (RPI 44, SOS 44, 4-7 vs. 1-50, 3-0 vs. 51-100, 15-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - In mere days, the Tigers' RPI has plummeted from the low 30s to 44. That's what happens when you lose to a terrible team like Nebraska. (And the RPI doesn't even account for the shameful 15-point margin of defeat.) Missouri built up a good enough resume that they should be able to survive that loss, but things could get tight depending on how things play out elsewhere on the Bubble. Lean IN.
SEC (3):
- Florida (RPI 52, SOS 32, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 8-4 last 12) - Their win against Auburn last night was necessary, but not sufficient. A win over Missisippi State today would strengthen the Gators' case, but it would take one more over Vanderbilt for them to feel comfortable. Even Odds.
- Ole Miss (RPI 56, SOS 72, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rebels have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, but their biggest problem is that they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Three straight losses to Vandy, Florida, and Missisippi State in mid-February may have sunk their season. They've closed it out with four wins (against middling opposition), but will probably need a second round win over Tennessee to get through. Lean OUT.
- Mississippi State (RPI 67, SOS 103, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their only top 50 win came against Old Dominion in December, and all those bad losses take their toll. A win against Florida today is an absolute must, but even that may not get it done. Lean OUT.
Mountain West (2):
- San Diego State (RPI 32, SOS 74, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Aztecs survived with a last-minute victory against Colorado State on Thursday. They have a shiny top 35 RPI and a big win against New Mexico, but little else to go with that. Even Odds.
- UNLV (RPI 50, SOS 110, 4-4 vs. 1-50, 3-0 vs. 51-100, 16-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - The Runnin' Rebs have an RPI top 50 record as good as almost anyone on this list, and included in that is a highly impressive win at The Pit. Taking care of business against Utah in the MWC tourney quarters should see them through. Lean IN.
Atlantic-10 (3):
- Rhode Island (RPI 41, SOS 95, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Rams killed themselves last week with two bad losses against St. Bonaventure and UMass. It's a nice-looking RPI, but with just one top 50 win, it may not be enough. The Rams got a must-win over St. Joe's yesterday, but they'll need to get it done against St. Louis today. Even Odds.
- Dayton (RPI 51, SOS 34, 3-7 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - The Flyers sport a few nice wins, including a 25-point drubbing of in-state rival Xavier. They've also challenged themselves with decent showings against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico. If they can beat Xavier again today, I like their chances. Even Odds.
- Charlotte (RPI 66, SOS 77, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100,15-3 vs. 100+, 5-7 last 12) - The loss to UMass this week capped off a terrible close to the season, during which the 49ers went 1-7. They are NIT-bound. OUT.
West Coast (1):
- Gonzaga (RPI 35, SOS 111, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 4-0 vs. 51-100, 17-2 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - Though I've kept them here on principle, with Bubble teams collapsing around them, the Zags are safe. IN.
Pac-10 (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- California (RPI 20, SOS 13, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 17-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - As down as the Pac-10 is, it's gonna be real tough to keep out their regular season champs when they've got a top 20 RPI. Lean IN.
- Washington (RPI 49, SOS 64, 2-2 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Washington and Cal split their regular season matchups, but the Huskies have one thing the Bears don't -- a quality non-conference win (against Texas A&M). Still, with a middling record against lower-rated teams, that's not likely to be enough. Lean OUT.
- Arizona State (RPI 61, SOS 77, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 1-1 vs. 51-100, 19-3 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Their loss to Stanford yesterday sent them to the NIT. OUT.
Conference USA (3) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- UTEP (RPI 39, SOS 117, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 5-3 vs. 51-100, 18-1 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
- No marquee wins, but a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak (and counting) to close the season. Lean IN. - UAB (RPI 45, SOS 96, 1-3 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Mike Davis' squad completed a characteristic late-season swoon with a bad loss to Southern Mississippi yesterday. They're off the Bubble and into the NIT. OUT.
- Memphis (RPI 55, SOS 85, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 5-0 vs. 51-100, 16-4 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - A tough loss to Houston yesterday means the Tigers are likely out. They have a solid record against teams rated 51-100, but there are a handful of bad losses and their best wins are against NIT-bound UAB. Strong lean OUT.
Missouri Valley (1):
- Wichita State (RPI 42, SOS 100, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 8-1 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12)- The Shockers really needed a Bracket Buster win at Utah State, but didn't get it. They've got one win over Northern Iowa (to go with two losses), and not much more. Still, with the Bubble collapsing around them, and a solid record against teams rated 51-100, they've got a very outside shot. Strong lean OUT.
WAC (1):
- Utah State (RPI 30, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12) - The Aggies are certainly the favorite to win the WAC tournament, but it's becoming a perennial question with them - can they get an at-large bid if they don't? It'll be a classic Bilas-Vitale debate, and while you know where my sympathies lie, even with the season-closing 16-game (and counting) winning streak, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.
MAC (1):
- Kent State (RPI 47, SOS 94, 1-2 vs. 1-50, 4-2 vs. 51-100, 17-5 vs. 100+, 10-2 last 12)- Getting pummeled by 17 points in the first round of the MAC tourney eliminated their slim at-large hopes. OUT.
The Bottom Line
Let’s assume that Cal, UTEP, and Utah State win their conference tournaments and don’t need at-large bids. The other “lean in” teams (Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Missouri, and UNLV) would take 7 at-large bids. In the worst case scenario, there would be no more at-large bids left. In the best case scenario, there would be 5 more bids left, with the following 6 teams best-positioned to pick them up: Seton Hall, Illinois, Florida, San Diego State, Rhode Island, and Dayton. For now, I’ll drop Illinois from this list on the assumption they lose to Wisconsin today. That leaves us with the following best-case Bubble scenario:
Keep in mind, this assumes the auto bid for each of these conferences goes to one of the listed teams, and that Cal, UTEP, and Utah State all win auto bids. If these assumptions don't pan out, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, San Diego State, and Florida will be sweating it.
UPDATE: The math above has been edited. We erroneously calculated the "worst case scenario" as leaving 7 at-large bids for the Bubble teams. In fact, the worst-case scenario would leave just 6 at-large bids.
UPDATE 2: The original math was correct, and we have re-edited. Apologies for the yo-yo.
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