1-Syracuse*
16-Vermont
I certainly don't think it will happen, but I give Vermont a shooter's chance of pulling an upset over a Syracuse team that has lost two straight and will be without Arinze Onuaku. The senior-laden Catamounts' team plays fairly good defense and can exploit the Cuse's poor defensive rebounding. The big problem for Vermont is their poor 3-point shooting, which could doom them against Syracuse's vaunted zone defense.
8-Florida State*
9-Gonzaga
FSU should win on the strength of defense and rebounding, but could be done in by turnovers. If they do win, I give them fair odds of upsetting an Onuaku-less Syracuse team in the second round.
4-Vanderbilt
13-Murray State*
Upset Special. Murray State is a pretty complete, pretty balanced team. They have a couple weaknesses (defensive rebounding, turnovers) that Vanderbilt is not well-equipped to exploit. The Racers have a good enough chance that it's fun to pick them.
5-Butler*
12-UTEP
This may be the most wide open pod. This matchup poses problems for both teams. UTEP is foul-prone, and Butler lives at the charity stripe. On the other hand, the Bulldogs could have a lot of trouble with the Miners' primary offensive weapon, Derrick Caracter (as they did with Greg Monroe in the loss to Georgetown). I'm gonna stick with the Bulldogs here, but mostly because I find it too close to call, and I just want them to win.
3-Pittsburgh*
14-Oakland
Expect Pitt to continue its fine late season form and set up a potential rematch of last year's great Sweet Sixteen tilt against Xavier.
6-Xavier*
11-Minnesota
Minnesota can light it up from downtown, but Xavier has been stifling opponents' 3-point shooting all year.
7-BYU*
10-Florida
BYU has let me down before, but they really are underseeded here, and they're facing a Florida team that stumbled ass backwards into the Tournament.
2-Kansas State*
15-North Texas
Their ferocious rebounding and ability to get to the free throw line makes it hard to upset Kansas State.
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