The Locks
I now have 29 at-large locks. This list looks slightly different than yesterday's because I have removed all the locks who won auto bids.
The Bubble
There are 5 at-large bids left.
Bubble teams below. In parentheses are each team's RPI rating, Strength of Schedule rating, record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, record against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, record against teams outside the RPI top 100, and record in their last 12 games.
ACC (1):
- Virginia Tech (RPI 59, SOS 132, 3-4 vs. 1-50, 5-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - It'll be tough to leave out an ACC team with a 23-8 (10-7 conference) record, but the Hokies don't have an excuse for such a weak SOS. Wins over Clemson, Wake, and Georgia Tech in the past month may be enough to see them through, but Va Tech has made it tough on themselves. Even Odds.
Big East (2):
- Cincinnati (RPI 59, SOS 8, 4-12 vs. 1-50, 3-3 vs. 51-100, 11-0 vs. 100+, 4-8 last 12) - A team that is much better early in the season than late is not likely to fare well with the Selection Committee. Strong lean OUT.
- Seton Hall (RPI 61, SOS 32, 4-9 vs. 1-50, 2-3 vs. 51-100, 13-0 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - With Minnesota and Mississippi State scoring big wins yesterday, the Pirates' chances are sliding. They've still got a decent resume: no bad losses, some decent wins, and 7 wins over their final 10 games. But given movement elsewhere on the Bubble, that is unlikely to be enough. Lean OUT.
Big Ten (2):
- Illinois (RPI 72, SOS 39, 5-9 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 13-3 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - The Illini scored a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. That gives them 5 wins against top 35 teams, a feat unmatched by any other team on this list except Minnesota. Yes, they struggled down the stretch and yes the RPI is still rough, but things are starting to look up for Illinois. Lean IN.
- Minnesota (RPI 60, SOS 44, 5-7 vs. 1-50, 1-2 vs. 51-100, 15-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A thumping of Purdue yesterday followed by their own thumping at the hands of OSU today. It's tough to leave out a team with 5 top 50 wins, including wins against Ohio State and Purdue and a nice non-con win against Butler. They also have a road win at Illinois. Lean IN.
SEC (3):
- Florida (RPI 54, SOS 36, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 12-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With the loss to Mississippi State Friday, the Gators should be sweating. Two of their three best wins were very early in the season, and none came on the road. They have a solid record against 51-100, but it may not be enough. Even Odds.
- Ole Miss (RPI 58, SOS 64, 2-6 vs. 1-50, 4-3 vs. 51-100, 15-1 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - Friday’s loss to Tennessee was the end of the line for Ole Miss. As I’ve noted, while they have a nice win over Kansas State from early in the season, they haven't beaten a team in the top 80 of the RPI since a December 16 win over UTEP. Strong lean OUT.
- Mississippi State (RPI 57, SOS 104, 2-5 vs. 1-50, 7-2 vs. 51-100, 14-4 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - A much-needed win over Vanderbilt yesterday followed by a heartbreaking loss to UK today. Is it enough, given they have just one other top 50 win (against Old Dominion)? Even Odds.
Atlantic-10 (2):
- Rhode Island (RPI 38, SOS 87, 1-4 vs. 1-50, 6-2 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 7-5 last 12) - Yesterday's loss to Temple left the Rams with just one top 50 win. With a rough performance down the stretch, they look NIT bound. Lean OUT.
- Dayton (RPI 53, SOS 31, 3-8 vs. 1-50, 2-2 vs. 51-100, 15-2 vs. 100+, 6-6 last 12) - With a rough 3-6 record down the stretch and a thoroughly mediocre performance away from home, things aren’t looking good for the Flyers. Lean OUT.
Pac-10 (2) (Note: One of these teams will win an auto bid):
- California (RPI 22, SOS 15, 1-5 vs. 1-50, 4-1 vs. 51-100, 18-3 vs. 100+, 9-3 last 12) - A fascinating test case. An RPI of 21 and the regular season Pac-10 champions, but just one top 50 win against a team that beat them in their other two meetings. No meaningful road wins. Even Odds.
Conference USA (2) (Note: One of these teams is likely to win an auto bid):
- UTEP (RPI 38, SOS 111, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 6-3 vs. 51-100, 18-2 vs. 100+, 12-0 last 12)
- While they have no marquee wins, they have a solid overall record and a very impressive 15-game winning streak that preceded yesterday’s collapse against Houston. Their resume is very similar to Utah State, but their wins against 51-100 are more impressive and included a lot of road games. Lean IN.
WAC (1):
- Utah State (RPI 31, SOS 105, 2-1 vs. 1-50, 7-3 vs. 51-100, 16-2 vs. 100+, 11-1 last 12) - Here we go again. The Aggies put themselves in a terrible bind with last night's loss to NMSU. Even with the 16-game winning streak preceding last night's game, I'm not sure this is a strong enough resume to get it done. Even Odds.
The Bottom Line
I think it comes down to 8 teams for 5 spots: Virginia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Mississippi State, Cal, UTEP, and Utah State. I like Illinois and Minnesota for the quality top 50 wins. I like UTEP for the strong run down the stretch and the road wins. I like Virginia Tech for the solid overall record and three wins against tourney-bound teams in the last month of the season, including one on the road (though that weak non-con SOS could bite them in the butt). The last team is tough to pick.
As unlikely as it is, I just don't see any fair rationale for sending Cal to the tournament, notwithstanding the institutional biases. They should be out. Florida has strong wins against Florida State and Michigan State, but they were early, and it's hard to put them in over Mississippi State after just losing to them. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have an unimpressive overall body of work. Srinivas and I batted these three teams around for a bit, and at the end of the day, it's a bit of a coin flip. We're going to go with Utah State on the strength of their closing run and 2 out of 3 wins against the top 50.
That leaves us with the following scenario:
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